000 AXNT20 KNHC 201754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 04N to 13N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm of the wave axis from 03N to 08N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W south of 20N, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm east of the wave axis from 11N to 14N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited convection associated to this wave mostly inland over N Colombia. The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 79W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 12N23W to 06N40W. It resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N44W to 03N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is in land over Guinea from 10N-13N between 13W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 28W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 52W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 29N88W. A surface trough extends from near Cape Coral, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N97W. Isolated moderate convection is over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and SE Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the Gulf waters, except over the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds are noted. Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the entire period. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and deepening low pressure over Mexico. Locally strong winds are then expected over the SW basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean waters. Please see the tropical waves section above. The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will expand to the north-central and southwest basin tonight through the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft with the strongest winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N50W to 22N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-31N between 47W-53W. A 1032 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N28W. An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South Carolina to central Florida to the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper level divergence ahead of this trough is supporting scattered moderate convection extending over the northern Bahamas northward toward the waters between 31N68W and 31N72W. In the tropics, a large plume of Saharan dust continues to spread across the tropical waters. Dry and hazy conditions associated with this dust plume cover much of the waters between 10N and 20N and east of 55W to Africa. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N. High pressure anchored near the Azores Islands will extend a ridge axis across to the W Atlantic, through the middle of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night through Wed. $$ Formosa