000 AXNT20 KNHC 201023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 19W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 11N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 03N to 08N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 20N, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm east of the wave axis from 11N to 15N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited convection associated to this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm west and 150 nm east of the wave axis from 09N to 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N22W. The ITCZ continues from 12N22W to 06N40W. It resumes from 04N43W to 05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W and 33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the ITCZ west of 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near Cape Coral, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the SE Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the Gulf waters, except over the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds are noted. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... As is typical for this time of year, tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean waters. Please see the tropical waves section above. The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South Carolina, to central Florida, and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper level divergence ahead of this trough is supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection extending from the Straits of Florida, NE across the central and northern Bahamas northward toward the waters between 32N75W and 32N70W. A surface trough extends from 32N47W to 23N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 23N between 42W and 52W. A large plume of Saharan dust continues to spread across the tropical waters. Dry and hazy conditions associated with this dust plume cover much of the waters between 10N and 20N and east of 55W to Africa. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N. A ridge will prevail across the region through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola at night. $$ AL