000 AXNT20 KNHC 200553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ precipitation. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 35W and 42W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 16N between 54W and 62W. Some of the precipitation is reaching the eastern islands of the Caribbean Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from Hispaniola southward, into Venezuela and Colombia. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is in clusters from 08N to 10N between the tropical wave and 75W, in Venezuela and Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia and Costa Rica. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 22N and Cuba, southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from the monsoon trough to 12N between 76W and the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Mauritania and Senegal, to 12N22W. The ITCZ continues from 12N22W, to 06N35W, and from 06N37W 04N41W, to 05N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 35W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 450 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ, from 54W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South Carolina, to central Florida, into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from the SE Gulf of Mexico, into the south central sections, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the NW corner of the Gulf, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sunday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast in the western Gulf of Mexico from Monday night through Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 16N between 54W and 62W. Some of the precipitation is reaching the eastern islands of the Caribbean Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from Hispaniola southward, into Venezuela and Colombia. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is in clusters from 08N to 10N between the tropical wave and 75W, in Venezuela and Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia and Costa Rica. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 22N and Cuba, southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from the monsoon trough to 12N between 76W and the tropical wave. The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery, show that an inverted trough extends from Panama, northeastward, to the Mona Passage. Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will expand in coverage this weekend, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean. The winds will pulse to near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Wednesday night. The seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12 feet with the strongest winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South Carolina, to central Florida, into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from Bermuda westward. This precipitation is on the eastern side of the upper level trough. An upper level trough, that is in the north central Atlantic Ocean, is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 31N47W 26N52W 20N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the area from 25N to 30N between 47W and 52W. Other rainshowers are possible within 520 nm to the east of the trough, and within 420 nm to the west of the trough. A ridge will prevail across the region through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola at night. $$ mt