739 AXNT20 KNHC 191739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Meteo-France forecasts minimal gale-force winds over the Agadir area tthrough this evening, then weakening to near-gale force over Agadir and Canarias through the next 24 hours. Please refer to the Meteo-France forecast located at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grand large/ metarea2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W and S of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the wave axis S of 09N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Abundant cloudiness prevails in the wave's environment, making it easy to find and follow. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 07N to 15N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W and S of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. At this time, no significant convection prevails within this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W S of 21N, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern portion of the wave mainly N of 18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 09N27W. The ITCZ begins near 05N34W to 04N51W. Scattered showers prevail from 05N-09N and east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 29N87W. A surface trough extends across south Florida and the southeast Gulf along 24N and east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the trough mainly south of 26N and east of 85W. The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. High pressure prevails north of the area, over the west Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. To the southwest, the monsoon trough extends along 11N between 75W-83W enhancing convection in the area. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted along and south of the boundary between 76W-82W. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin, and the Gale Warning over the far east Atlantic. Divergence ahead of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered moderate convection over the waters west 69W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N48W to 26N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with this trough north of 23N between 40W-56W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by high pressure centers located north of the area. A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic E of 50W to Africa with dry and hazy conditions. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the waters N of 20N. The surface ridge will prevail across the region through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night. $$ ERA