151 AXNT20 KNHC 191021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W S of 15N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the wave axis S of 09N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W S of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 07N to 12N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W S of 18N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the wave axis S of 15N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W S of 21N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm W of the wave axis S of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 08N23W to 05.5N32W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N32W to 03N50W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 18W to the coast of Africa. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ W of 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the central Gulf of Mexico to the SW coast of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the SE Gulf of Mexico, south of the surface trough and east of 87W. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N85W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Gulf, and light to gentle winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails N of the area, over the SW N Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean will expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence ahead of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection over the waters west of a line from 32N70W to the Florida Straits, including the NW Bahamas. A surface trough extends from 32N47W to 22N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm east of the trough from 23N to 28N. A large area of Saharan dust cover the tropical Atlantic E of 45W to Africa with dry and hazy conditions. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters N of 20N. A ridge will prevail across the region through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night. $$ AL