000 AXNT20 KNHC 190610 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 12N southward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 05N to the coast, in Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N and SE Cuba southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 74W and 77W in northern Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond 85W in Costa Rica. A tropical wave is along 90W, from 17N in Guatemala southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 11N to 20N between 86W and 94W, from the eastern Pacific Ocean to the Yucatan Peninsula between Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W, curving to 12N22W 08N23W 07N30W, and 05N32W. The ITCZ continues from 05N32W to 04N40W and 03N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 14N from 18W eastward, and from 02N to 08N between 26W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW coast of Florida, northward, beyond north Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean, to the northwest of the line that runs from the Atlantic Ocean side of SE Cuba near 21N to 29N68W. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is in the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the south of the surface trough, from 92W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from the surface trough northward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 28N84W. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sunday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast in the western Gulf of Mexico, from Monday night through Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N and SE Cuba southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 74W and 77W in northern Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond 85W in Costa Rica. The GFS model for 700 mb shows a slight NE-to-SW oriented inverted trough across Jamaica. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 17N to Cuba between 77W and 83W. Isolated moderate precipitation is at the eastern end of Hispaniola, and at the western end of Hispaniola, also. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday, and then expand in coverage during this weekend, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean. The winds will pulse to near gale-force, near the coast of Colombia, from tonight through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW coast of Florida, northward, beyond north Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean, to the northwest of the line that runs from the Atlantic Ocean side of SE Cuba near 21N to 29N68W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is about 460 nm to the east of a surface trough, that is along 34N47W 24N48W 21N51W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is to the east of the surface trough. A ridge will continue to build across the region for the remainder of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse, to the north of Hispaniola, at night. $$ mt