000 AXNT20 KNHC 182334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 734 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Force Winds Possible in Agadir... Meteo France outlook period indicates near gale to gale force north to northeast winds are possible for forecast area Agadir off the coast of Morocco during the next 24 hours. For more information: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 24W from 14N southward, moving west 10-15 knots. The weak wave is not well- defined in either the surface or 700 mb winds and is embedded in a very large zone of Saharan air. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted with the wave from 03.5N-07N between 21W-27W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 51W from 18N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is observed as some turning in the surface winds from a morning scatterometer pass as well as a maximum in the total precipitable water just east of the axis. Saharan air dominates the central tropical Atlantic behind this wave from 45W to the wave along 24W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-11W between 46W- 53W. An Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 73W from 21N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is not detectable at the surface, but can be analyzed from both 700 mb winds as well as a maximum of total precipitable water east of the axis. No significant deep convection is occurring currently in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 04N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the two Atlantic tropical waves, only a modest area of convection is noted from the African coast to 17W within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 24N85W to the S Florida peninsula near 26N82W. A middle to upper level trough extends from the Ohio Valley to the SW Gulf of Mexico, and is promoting unstable conditions across the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is seen SE of a line from Tampa Bay to the northern Yucatan Peninsula across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. A ridge will build modestly southward across the NE Gulf tonight and then dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens some between the ridge a lower pressures over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... See above for discussion of a weak tropical wave near 73W. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, the E trades are generally moderate to fresh, with some E to NE strong winds observed by morning scatterometer data just north of Colombia this morning. Scattered moderate convection is occurred south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with the NE Pacific's monsoon trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring in the NW Caribbean from the NE coast of Belize through the Yucatan Channel. The tropical wave along 73W will move into the western Caribbean tonight. A tropical wave near 51W will reach the Lesser Antilles by Fri night. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See above for discussion of two Atlantic tropical waves. Elsewhere the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb Bermuda/Azores High centered north of our area near 35N36W, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to 35N80W. Trades south of the ridge are generally gentle to fresh. Two weak surface troughs are noted at 29N68W to 31N66W and 26N50W to 30N44W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm either side of both troughs. A large plume of dense Saharan dust remains visible from roughly 10N-22N east of 42W. Visibility is inhibited over the area, with Sal in the Cabo Verde Islands reporting about 3 nm visibility earlier this afternoon. The Bermuda/Azores ridge will continue to build across the region the remainder of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night. $$ Stripling