000 AXNT20 KNHC 181742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Force Winds Possible in Agadir... Meteo France outlook period indicates near gale to gale force north to northeast winds are possible for forecast area Agadir off the coast of Morocco during the next 24 hours. For more information: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 21W from 14N southward, moving westward around 10 knots. The weak wave is not well-defined in either the surface or 700 mb winds, nor in the total precipitable water. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted with the wave from 04N-10N between 18W-24W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 49W from 18N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is observed as some turning in the surface winds from a scatterometer pass as well as a maximum in the total precipitable water just east of the axis. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-03W between 48W-51W. An Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 72W from 21N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is not detectable at the surface, but can be analyzed from both 700 mb winds as well as a maximum of total precipitable water east of the axis. No significant deep convection is occurring currently in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 04N45W. Aside from the convection associated with the two Atlantic tropical waves, no additional deep convection is noted with the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 23N87W to the S Florida peninsula near 26N80W. This is interacting with an upper-level trough over the central Gulf to produce scattered showers and isolated moderate convection from 20N-25N between 80W-87W. Winds and seas are light across the Gulf today. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens some between the ridge a lower pressures over Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... See above for discussion of a weak tropical wave near 72W. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, the E trades are generally moderate to fresh, with some E to NE strong winds observed by scatterometer just north of Colombia this morning. Scattered moderate convection is occurred south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with the NE Pacific's monsoon trough. Scattered showers are also occurring in the NW Caribbean west of 85W. The tropical wave along 72W will move into the western Caribbean tonight. A tropical wave near 49W will reach the Lesser Antilles by Fri night. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See above for discussion of two Atlantic tropical waves. Elsewhere the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1032 mb Bermuda/Azores High centered north of our area near 36N37W with a ridge extending west-southwestward to 30N80W. Trades south of the ridge are generally gentle to fresh. Two weak surface troughs are noted at 29N68W to 31N66W and 26N50W to 30N44W. Scattered showers are present within 180 nm east of the troughs. A large plume of dense Saharan dust remains visible from roughly 10N-20N east of 40W. Visibility is inhibited over the area, with Sal in the Cabo Verde Islands reporting about 3 nm visibility. The Bermuda/Azores ridge will continue to build across the region the remainder of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night. $$ Landsea