712 
AXNT20 KNHC 181030
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
805 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale force winds possible in Agadir...

Meteo France outlook period indicates near gale to gale force 
north to northeast winds are possible for forecast area Agadir 
off the coast of Morocco.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 12N southward, 
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is 
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by 
ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 15N southward, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical 
wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is 
surrounded by ITCZ precipitation.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 19N southward, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward, in Venezuela. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections 
of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W 
to 05N34W to 08N42W to 06N54W, near the coast of Suriname. 
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 09N 
between the coast of Africa and 22W. Isolated to scattered 
moderate and locally strong is in clusters, elsewhere, from 10N 
southward between 45W and 61W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad troughing extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SE 
Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. 
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N 
southward from 87W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf 
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, 
to the central Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several 
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are 
expected through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from the western part of 
Costa Rica to the eastern half of Honduras. Precipitation: 
scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm of the coast of 
Central America from 10N to the coast of NE Nicaragua. Isolated 
to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere 
from 16N northward from Jamaica westward.

Broad troughing extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SE 
Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. 
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N 
southward from 87W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
The tropical wave along 65W will move into the central Caribbean 
tonight. A tropical wave near 44W will reach the Lesser Antilles 
by Fri night. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the 
south-central Caribbean through Friday, then expand in coverage 
this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough has dissipated northeast of the central 
Bahamas. Further east, a large area of Saharan dust is spreading 
across the tropical Atlantic waters from 06N to 27N east of 45W. 
An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 26N 
northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated to widely 
scattered moderate from 25N northward between 58W and 70W, and 
from Haiti and Cuba northward between 70W and the SE Gulf of 
Mexico, including across Cuba.

Broad troughing extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SE 
Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. 
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N 
southward from 87W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the 
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 30W eastward. Rain 
showers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.
 
Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build across the region by the 
end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds 
will pulse, to the north of Hispaniola, at night.

$$
mt/dbm