000 AXNT20 KNHC 172324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the wave axis S of 08.5N. A thick plume of Saharan dust is seen from 10N-28N extending well ahead of this wave to 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is embedded in a large area of Saharan air. Saharan dust is seen from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W. This dry environment is limiting convection near the wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 41W and 47W. This wave is forecast to reach the waters from 55W to the Lesser Antilles on Fri, affecting the islands mainly south of Guadeloupe late on Fri or Fri night. A tropical wave with axis along 62W S of 19N is currently producing showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and NE coastal sections of Venezuela, and could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall over these locations through tonight. Grenada has reported gusty winds of 30-40 kt with heavy showers earlier today. This tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean tonight and Thu, reaching the central Caribbean late on Thu or Thu night. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to locally strong E-SE winds on the east side of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 08N13W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 07N38W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave at 06N43W and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 04N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 50W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N94W. A middle to upper level trough extending from the NE Gulf to the SW Bay of Campeche is producing mainly dry and stable conditions across the Gulf. Except for scattered moderate convection over the Straits of Florida and S Florida, from Naples, Florida the the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves above section for details. A 1009 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 10N76W. Scattered moderate convection is over the W Caribbean S of 17N and W of 80W, trailing a tropical wave over SE Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. Skies are generally fair across the rest of the basin, except where strong afternoon convection across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola is shifting into portions of their adjacent coastal waters. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic southward through 31N72W to the central Bahamas, then continues as a frontal trough from 24N70W the near the N coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm E of the system. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward and 33W eastward. Rain showers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The W Atlantic surface front will drift eastward N of 27N through Thu and weaken. Atlantic high pressure will build across the region by the end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night. $$ Stripling