000 AXNT20 KNHC 171753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 08N. A thick plume of dust is from 10N-27N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 38W-46W. This wave is forecast to reach the waters between 55W and the Lesser Antilles on Fri, affecting the islands mainly south of Guadeloupe late on Fri or fri night. The wave is embedded in a large area of African dust. A tropical wave with axis along 60W S of 19N is currently producing showers and tunderstorms over the Windward Islands and NE coastal sections of Venezuela. This system could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall over these locations today. In fact, Grenada has reported gusty winds of 30-40 kt with heavy showers. Trinidad and Tobago also reported a wind gust of 22 kt. This tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean tonight and Thu, reaching the central Caribbean late on Thu or Thu night. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to locally strong E-SE winds on the east side of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 10N18W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 07N37W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave at 06N42W and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N-12N between 49W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a 1019 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N93W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over the Straits of Florida and S Florida. Scattered showers are over the NE Gulf N of 28N to include the Florida Panhandle. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details. A 1010 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 10N77W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 11N between 76W-80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Caribbean from 13N-18N between 80W-90W. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N72W to 28N72W. A surface trough continues from 28N72W, to the Bahamas near 25N74W, to the coast of Cuba near 23N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 360 nm E of the system. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward and 33W eastward. Rain showers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The W Atlantic surface front will drift eastward N of 27N through Thu and weaken. Atlantic high pressure will build across the region by the end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night. $$ Formosa/GR