000 AXNT20 KNHC 171035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 17N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward between the tropical wave and Trinidad. A tropical wave is along 91W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is inland from Nicaragua to Honduras, to the Yucatan Peninsula, to Guatemala, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 08N33W. The ITCZ continues along 07N38W to 05N42W to 05N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in clusters from the Equator to 11N between 47W and 53W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 13W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed south of Louisiana. A second surface trough in the far SW part of the Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal waters and coastal plains of the U.S.A. from 28N northward between the Florida Panhandle and 94W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, between 80W and Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of a line that runs from 10N77W to 17N84W. A 700 mb inverted trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Belize and the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate, isolated strong is from 17N northward and from Jamaica westward, in the waters between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica. The tropical wave along 57W will cross the Windward Islands later today. The wave will reach the central Caribbean Sea on Thursday night. The tropical wave along 36W will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday, and then expand in coverage during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N75W to 29N75W. A surface trough continues from 29N75W, to the Bahamas near 25N76W, to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that is northeast of the Bahamas from 24N northward, and from 60W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward and 33W eastward. Rain showers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The current surface trough will drift eastward, N of 27N, through Thursday, and then it will weaken. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build across the region by the end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse, in the waters north of Hispaniola, at night. $$ mt/dbm