000 AXNT20 KNHC 161729 TWDAT AXNT20 KNHC 161700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of western Africa along 12W, S of 14N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 09W-17W. A tropical wave is over the Atlantic along 32W, S of 14N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the Atlantic along 54W, S of 17N moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-15N between 48W-58W. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 87W, S of 19N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean and along the coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 08N31W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 07N34W to 06N44W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over N Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico from Cocoa Beach Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Radar imagery shows scattered showers within 45 nm of the front over the NE Gulf. Similar showers are over the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days supporting mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas generally under 5 ft. Fresh northerly winds will occasionally occur near and to the NW of the western Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 15N and W of 77W. Elsewhere, isolated showers are over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean along 87W will will move W of area today. Another tropical wave along 54W will cross the Windward Islands on Wed, reaching the central Caribbean on Thu. A third tropical wave along 32W will reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by late Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will remain over the south-central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage beginning late on Fri and through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to Cocoa Beach Florida. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A prefrontal surface trough extends from 28N75W to the N Bahamas near 25N77W to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis. Another surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N60W to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection is also within 180 nm of this trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the E Atlantic near the Canary Islands. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, are expected to persist over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas through Thu due to the two troughs over the W Atlantic and the Bahamas. The troughs will move eastward through Wed while weakening. A ridge will follow. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. $$ Formosa