000 AXNT20 KNHC 161139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 739 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 02N-18N with axis near 26W, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-19N with axis near 44W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 01N-11N between 40W-50W. A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis near 54W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-13N between 50W-58W. The tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 18N with axis near 65W, moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no convection over water associated with this wave due to deep layered dry air in the area. The tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean through early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night to Fri night. A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean S of 20N with axis along 86W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are in the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan peninsula and in the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave will exit the basin by this afternoon. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N16W to 10N22W. The ITCZ begins near 07N34W and continues to 06N40W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 08W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor and microwave satellite imagery continue to show deep layered dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting stable conditions. Surface ridging covers the gulf, except for the SW basin where a surface trough prevails with possible isolated showers supported by shallow moisture as indicated by the low- level LPW imagery. The surface trough will linger over the Yucatan peninsula and SW Gulf through today. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the entire period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level divergence and moisture inflow from the EPAC monsoon trough continue to support scattered showers and tstms across portions of the western Caribbean. This activity is enhanced by a tropical wave crossing central America today. Deep layered dry air is over the remainder basin, which is supporting fair weather conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through Wed. A tropical wave with axis near 86W will exit the basin today. A second tropical wave will continue to move across the eastern Caribbean today, the central Caribbean Tue afternoon through early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Tropical N Atlantic waters today, cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu and across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will remain over the south-central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage beginning late on Fri and through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends from low pressure of 1015 mb near 30N78W southward along the Florida seaboard to just N of Andros Island. The low will slowly track well north of the area through Thu pulling the trough away from the area. Until then, the combination of this trough and plenty of available moisture in place over the western Atlantic will continue to result in unsettled weather conditions over these waters through the end of the week. Central Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and Florida Thu through Sat night. $$ Ramos