000 AXNT20 KNHC 152336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 736 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 02N-17N with axis near 25W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 04.5N-11N between 24W and 34W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-18N with axis near 42W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 41W and 48W. A tropical wave is in the Atlc extending from 02N-18N with axis near 52W-53W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 48W and 56W. The tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles Tue night, then move across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 64W from 16N southward moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no convection over water associated with this wave due to dry air in the area. The tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean Tue afternoon through early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night to Fri night. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis along 84W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm ahead and 240 nm behind the wave axis from 11N-19N, including over eastern portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. The tropical wave will exit the basin by early Tue afternoon. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and Gambia near 12N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ is from 08N25W to 08N39W then continues from 07N43W to 06N49W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, there is no further significant convection. GULF OF MEXICO... A large and deep layered upper-level low encompasses eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, and west portions of Virginia and North Carolina, and extends a broad upper- level trough axis to southern Georgia to the east-central Gulf to the SW Gulf. GOES water vapor channels and TPW imagery indicate that the atmosphere is generally dry in the northern Gulf but quite moist over the southern and west-central Gulf. At the surface, a trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf from 19N91W to just south of Brownsville, TX. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the southern Gulf, generally south of a line from Naples, Florida to 26N90W to Port O'Connor Texas. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate wind speeds over the basin. The surface trough over the Yucatan peninsula and SW Gulf will linger through Tue. Weak high pressure will dominate the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the entire period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. An upper-level trough is over the eastern and southern Gulf of Mexico, while an upper-level ridge is over the central Caribbean. In between those features, abundant atmospheric moisture is being transported to the western Caribbean Sea, as shown by TPW imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen over and south of Cuba to the east of Havana, from 18N-23N between the Windward Passage and 85W. Isolated tstorms are seen near the coast of Belize and Yucatan as well as in the Yucatan Channel. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 08N- 14N between 77W-85W. Drier air is over the eastern Caribbean east of 75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south- central Caribbean from 12N-15N between 70W-76W, with fresh trades elsewhere south of 18N between 64W-78W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds will remain over the south-central Caribbean through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low is along the coast near the Florida-Georgia border. A weak stationary front extends westward from the low across Jacksonville to near Tallahassee Florida. A surface trough extends southward from the low to near 27N80W. CIMSS analysis shows a large area of upper-level divergence from the central and northwest Bahamas northward to the Carolinas. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the surface trough from 27N-32N to 70W. between 71W-80W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 24N71W to 28N64W to 28N59W to 30N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from the northern waters of Cuba northeastward across the Bahamas to within 180 nm either side of the surface trough to 28N72W, then becomes scattered moderate to the Bermuda area. The low center will slowly track well north of the area through Thu pulling the trough away from the area. Until then, the combination of this trough and plenty of available moisture in place over the western Atlantic will result in unsettled weather over these waters through Thu. Central Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and Florida Thu through Fri night. Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from 32N32W to 24N50W to the eastern Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence well east of this axis is causing scattered moderate convection within 300 nm SE of the trough to the N of 26N. Fresh NE winds are noted from 18N-27N between 20W-30W. $$ Stripling