622 AXNT20 KNHC 150619 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 220 AM EDT MON Jun 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is just moving off the west coast of Africa near 16W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from 03N-10N near the coast of Africa. The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W S of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south of 12N within 180 nm on either side of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W S of 18N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south of 12N within 100 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W S of 16N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity of the wave axis. Enhanced shower activity is possible over the southern Windward Islands tonight into Monday. The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W S of 18N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has increased in the last 6 hours from Jamaica west to the coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 08N34W, then resumes from 07N40W to 06N45W, then resumes from 05N48W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 18W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 20N91W to 25N95W. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough axis. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 23N-27N between 84W-90W, as well as over the far SE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over most of the basin. Tropical wave along 90W in SE Mexico will continue to enhance scattered Moderate convection along the Yucatan Peninsula and southeast Gulf tonight. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the entire period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of enhanced upper-level divergence spans from the central Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a result of these upper-level conditions, scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the western Caribbean from 09N-22N between 70W-82W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean as well as the remainder of the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through at least the early part of the week. A tropical wave with axis from Jamaica southward will exit the basin Tue afternoon. Another tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands this evening, and move across the eastern Caribbean through early Tue. It will continue westward reaching the far western Caribbean Fri night. Yet another tropical wave well east of the forecast waters will enter the eastern part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night and move across those waters through Tue night. It will cross the Lesser Antilles early on Wed, move across the eastern Caribbean through Thu night and the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the central Caribbean through the week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 70W, an area of enhanced upper-level divergence is over the Bahamas. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 20N-31N between 70W-80W. In the western Atlantic, a weak stationary front extends southeast from a 1018 mb low pressure centered near 31N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 60 nm east of the front. To the east, two troughs are present from 28N65W to 21N70W and a second trough near 31N57W to 25N61W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of both troughs. For the forecast west of 70W, a stationary front will remain offshore the southeastern U.S. coast through Tue night. Low pressure along the front will track far north of the area through mid-week. A trough will trail from the low southward to near the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu night. Before that happens, a trough, both at the surface and upper-levels, will be in the vicinity of South Florida and the Bahamas. These features will combine with ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather conditions to these waters through Wed. Central Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and Florida Thu through Fri night. $$ MTorres