000 AXNT20 KNHC 142243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is just moving off the west coast of Africa near 16W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from 03N- 10N between 14W and 20W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W S of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from 04N- 10N within 120 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W S of 18N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N-10N within 150 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W S of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 07N-11N within 60 nm ahead and within 240 nm behind the wave axis. Enhanced shower activity is possible over the southern Windward Islands tonight into early Monday. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W S of 18N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N35W, then resumes from 06N39W to 06N45W, then resumes from 06N48W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is is generally within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 20N90W to 25N95W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen near the trough axis, mainly north of 22N. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 23N- 27N between 84W-90W, as well as over the far SE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over most of the basin. A surface trough will linger over the Yucatan peninsula and SW Gulf through Tue. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the entire period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of enhanced upper-level divergence spans from the central Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a result of these upper-level conditions, scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the western Caribbean from 09N-22N between 76W-82W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean as well as the remainder of the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to continue over the western Caribbean through early Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the central Caribbean through the week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 70W...An area of enhanced upper-level divergence is over the Bahamas. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 20N-27N between 70W-80W. A weak stationary front extends from 31N79W to near St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 60 nm east of the front. For the forecast west of 70W...The stationary front will remain offshore the SE U.S. coast through Tue night. Low pressure will develop along the front on Mon and slowly track well north of the area through mid-week. A trough will trail from the low southward to near the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu night. Before this happens, a trough, both at the surface and upper-levels, will be in the vicinity of South Florida and the Bahamas. These features will combine with ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather conditions to these waters through Wed. East of 70W...A surface trough extends from 28N65W to 21N71W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 22N- 27N between 62W-67W. A surface trough extends from 32N57W to 25N60W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 52W- 57W. Farther east, a cold front dips southward into the area from 32N25W to 30N36W to 32N42W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the front. Scattered showers are near the front. $$ AL/Hagan