000 AXNT20 KNHC 141729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N-17N with axis along 35/36W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N-09N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 45W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N-10N within 120 nm behind and within 180 nm ahead of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 02N-16N with axis near 58W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 07N-11N within 120 nm ahead and within 360 nm behind the wave axis. Enhanced shower activity is possible over the southern Windward Islands tonight into early Monday. A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 76W, moving westward around 15 kt. Middle to low level dry air is preventing any showers along or east of the wave axis. However, scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the Caribbean west of the wave axis from 08N-19N between 77W-85W. A tropical wave is along 88W south of 20N with axis moving into the coast of Belize, extending southward to the east Pacific, moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N34W, then resumes from 06N38W to 05N44W, then resumes from 06N47W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is from 04N-10N between 13W-20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is generally within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 37W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-SW oriented upper-level trough covers the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from 19N91W to 25N94W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen near the surface trough axis, mainly north of 22N. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 22.5N-28.5N between 84W-91W. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. A surface trough will linger in the Yucatan peninsula and SW basin through Mon night. Weak high pressure will dominate the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of enhanced upper-level divergence spans from the central Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a result of these upper-level conditions and two tropical waves over the western Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the western Caribbean from 08N-22N between 76W-85W. Dry Saharan Air covers the Caribbean to the east of 76W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the southern Caribbean, south of 16N between 61W-76W, with locally strong trades south of 14N between 65W-74W. Moderate trades are elsewhere south of 18N. Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to continue over the western Caribbean through early Mon as the tropical wave along 76W moves through the area. This tropical wave will move west of the basin Tue afternoon. Another tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands this evening and move across the eastern Caribbean through early Tue. It will move across the western Caribbean Tue through Thu. Yet another tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles early on Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 70W...An area of enhanced upper-level divergence is over the Bahamas. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 21N-24N between 71W-75.5W, including the central and southeastern Bahamas. A weak stationary front extends from 31N80W to St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 23N-32N between 78W-81W, including along the east coast of Florida and over the Florida Straits. For the forecast west of 70W...The stationary front will remain offshore the SE U.S. coast through Tue night. Low pressure will develop along the front on Mon and slowly track well north of the area through mid-week. A trough will trail from the low southward to near the NW Bahamas Wed through Thu night. Before this happens, a trough, both at the surface and upper-levels, will be in the vicinity of South Florida and the Bahamas. These features will combine with ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather conditions to these waters through Wed. Currently, east of 70W...A surface trough extends from 27N65W to 21N71W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 24N-27N between 64W-68W. An upper-level low near 33N58W extends an upper-level trough to near 29N54W. A surface trough in that area extends from 32N58W to 25N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 53W-58W. Farther east, a cold front dips southward into the area from 32N27W to 31N35W to 32N44W. Fresh NE winds are north of the front between 34W-41W. Scattered showers are near the front. A 1021 mb high is near 27N28W. $$ Hagen