973 AXNT20 KNHC 141105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N-17N with axis near 34W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 30W-40W. A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 44W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 40W-50W. A tropical wave extends from 02N-16N with axis near 57W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 06N-12N between 50W-62W. A tropical wave extends from 11N-18N with axis near 75W, moving westward around 15 kt. Middle to low level dry air hinder convection in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is moving across Central America and the NW Caribbean with axis near 87W, moving west around 10 kt. Middle to upper level diffluent flow support numerous moderate isolated strong convection off the coast of Nicaragua and E Honduras to near 78W and scattered showers and tstms across Cuba adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues to 05N42W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 03N-09N between 09W to 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Except for scattered showers and tstsms in the SE Gulf enhanced by a middle to upper level trough, the remainder basin is under fair weather conditions being supported by dry air subsidence. Otherwise, weak surface high pressure across the area results in gentle to moderate winds with locally fresh winds. The surface trough will linger in the Yucatan peninsula and SW basin through Mon night. Weak high pressure will dominate the remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through the entire period. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the Caribbean is the convection off the coast of Nicaragua and Colombia. A tropical wave with axis near 87W will move west of the basin today. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of this wave are expected to be active through early Mon. A pair of tropical waves, one in the central basin and another entering the E Caribbean today will move across the basin through Wed, however no significant convection is expected associated with it. A fourth tropical wave will enter the eastern part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed. Low pressure may form along the front. The front will weaken into a trough from Wed into Thu. While this takes place, a trough will linger between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Expect unsettled weather conditions over the waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas and westward to the Florida coast for the next few days. $$ Ramos