000 AXNT20 KNHC 140548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM JUN 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N-09N between 30W-35W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W south of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 01N-10N between 41W-46W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend about 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave. This tropical wave will bring an enhancement of showers over the southern Windward Islands late Sunday and early Monday. The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W south of 17N in the Central Caribbean, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant oceanic convection is associated with this wave. Abundant dry air is observed in the central and eastern Caribbean limiting convection near the wave. The tropical wave will move across the western Caribbean today into early next week. The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W south of 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the wave. The tropical wave will move across Central America through Sun night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W to 06N30W, then continues from 06N35W to 05N41W, then continues from 05N45W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N-09N between 14W and the coast Guinea, Senegal, and Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-10N between 24W to the coast of Brazil near 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from 23N86W south along the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the trough axis. Scattered showers are lingering north of the trough from 23N to 27N from the Yucatan Channel to 90W. Fresh to strong winds are gradually subsiding across the NW Gulf with moderate to fresh NW winds observed in the latest ASCAT pass. The water vapor imagery shows dry airmass is present in the mid and low levels. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong northwest winds over the SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish to fresh speeds by late tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the northern Gulf Mon through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. The pair of tropical waves will move across the basin through the middle of the week, however no significant convection is expected associated with it. A fourth tropical wave will enter the eastern part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 32N56W to 25N60W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is seen 180 nm east of the trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are farther southwest along the surface trough. The second trough is observed from 26N65W to 21N70W in the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough. Upper trough in the eastern plains extends southwest across the Gulf of Mexico. This is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection across the Florida Straits and across the Bahamas. This trough is seen in the Central Atlantic but there is no significant convection near the trough. A 1021 mb high is near 27N25W, leading to ridging over the eastern Atlantic. A weak high pressure ridge over the northern waters will lift northward tonight. A low pressure trough that extends from the central Atlantic westward towards Hispaniola will weaken while drifting northwestward through Sun. A weak cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed. Low pressure may form along the front. The front will weaken into a trough from Wed into Thu. While this takes place, a trough will linger between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Expect unsettled weather conditions over the waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas and westward to the Florida coast for the next few days. $$ MTorres