000 AXNT20 KNHC 131003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W south of 17N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W south of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 07N within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 50W and 56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W south of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant oceanic convection is associated with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W south of 20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 77W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 05N38W, then continues from 05N41W to 05N46W. A Caribbean monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W to 09N83W. Scattered strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough W of 76W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 31W and 38W, and from 07N to 10N between 41W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf. Overnight scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh winds behind the front over the NW Gulf, where seas are generally 3-5 ft per recent altimeter data. Isolated showers are occurring near the front in the central Gulf. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern Gulf, east of a trough that extends from 29N83W to 23N85W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are ongoing in the SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, where seas are likely building to 5-7 ft. Seas are 2 ft or less E of 87W. The weakening stationary front will dissipate today, as moderate to fresh winds diminish behind the front over the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds will continue over the SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the northern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid- to upper-level disturbance in the NW Caribbean, along with the recent passage of a tropical wave, is supporting isolated thunderstorms south of central Cuba. Elsewhere, GOES-16 lightning data show active convection over the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough and east of a tropical wave along 83W. Drier air prevails over the eastern Caribbean, where no significant convection is noted. Gentle to moderate trades persist S of 17N, with light to gentle winds N of 17N under a weak pressure pattern. Seas are generally less than 3 ft across the basin, except 3-5 ft over the southern waters within the moderate trades. A western Caribbean tropical wave will move across Central America this weekend. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will cross the central Caribbean this weekend and the western Caribbean early next week. A third tropical wave near 52W will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend, then pass over the eastern Caribbean early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak high pressure extends across the northern offshore waters W of 65W, where gentle to moderate winds are shown in overnight scatterometer data. A broad upper-level low centered near 33N60W is maintaining an elongated surface trough across the central Atlantic from 32N57W to 27N57W, which then continues SW to near Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the trough and eastward to 53W. Broad, surface high pressure dominates the eastern and central Atlantic waters N of 20N and E of 50W, with moderate to fresh trades occurring south of the ridge. Weak high pressure over the northern offshore waters will lift northward through tonight. The central Atlantic low pressure trough will weaken while drifting NW this weekend. A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed as a trough lingers between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. $$ B Reinhart