000 AXNT20 KNHC 121713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21/22W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-10N along and within 150 nm W of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-10.5N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W south of 14N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N-09N within 240 nm of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W south of 16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms, some with gusty winds east of the wave axis, are noted from 11N-16N between 60W-66W, including over the Windward Islands. The tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean later this weekend. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W south of 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-16N between 73W-84W, enhanced by the east Pacific monsoon trough. The tropical wave will move across Central America this weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 07N33W, then continues from 08N37W to 07N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm S and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 25W-32W and between 39W-45W. Similar convection is seen from 05N-08N between 52W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Isolated showers and tstorms are along and just SE of the front. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N83W to 22N85W. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the trough. The stationary front will weaken today and dissipate on Sat. Moderate to fresh northeast winds NW of the front will diminish by Sat. Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico tonight through Sat night. Weak high pressure will build over the northern Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. A weak upper-level low near 20N82W and abundant moisture over the NW Caribbean are enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea, mainly NW of a line from the Windward Passage to the NE coast of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate trades over the central Caribbean will strengthen early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low near 33N59W extends a sharp upper-level trough to 24N55W. A surface trough is from 32N54W to 26N56W to 23N63W to 21.5N70W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 23N-32N between 50W-56W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere along the surface trough. The trough will weaken while it drifts northwestward during the weekend. Elsewhere, a broad, weak high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters north of 27N between 66W-80W. This ridge will weaken and lift northward through Sat. A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters. Farther east, another high pressure ridge extends across the central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades south of 20N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds are found off the west coast of Africa from 19N-26N, east of 27W. $$ Hagen