000 AXNT20 KNHC 121000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W south of 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N within 90 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W south of 16N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N within 60 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N within 90 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends across the Windward Islands along 61W south of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W south of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 06N33W, then continues from 08N36W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 23W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ W of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm SE of the front. Overnight scatterometer data shows moderate NE winds behind the front over the NW Gulf, with locally fresh winds near the north-central Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, fresh NW to N winds are occurring over the far SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Seas are generally 2-4 ft over the western Gulf, and 2 ft or less E of 87W. The stationary front will weaken today and dissipate on Sat. Moderate to fresh NE winds behind the front will diminish by Sat. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail over the SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico tonight through Sat night. Weak high pressure will build over the northern Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N W of 75W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 240 nm north of the trough between 76W and 79W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring over the NW Caribbean offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean this morning, with light winds across much of the basin. Moderate trades are noted in overnight scatterometer winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Recent altimeter passes indicate seas are 4 ft or less across the region. The western Caribbean tropical wave will move across Central America this weekend. The tropical wave near the Windward Islands will cross the eastern Caribbean and pass south of Puerto Rico today through Sat, then move across the central Caribbean later this weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, will spread across the Windward Islands today. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean will strengthen early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicts a mid- to upper-level low pressure system along 57W/58W. An associated surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 32N52W to 27N53W to 23N60W towards the SE Bahamas. Abundant moisture and favorable upper dynamics are supporting numerous moderate scattered strong convection within 120 nm of the trough E of 60W. Elsewhere, a broad, weak high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters W of 65W. Farther east, another high pressure ridge extends across the central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades S of 20N and W of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds are found off the western coast of Africa between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. The ridge over the northern offshore waters will weaken and lift northward through Sat. A low pressure trough that extends from the central Atlantic westward towards the SE Bahamas will weaken while drifting NW over the next couple days. A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters. $$ B Reinhart