000 AXNT20 KNHC 112225 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 15W/16W from Senegal and The Gambia southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection has diminished, with an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection out ahead of the wave from 04N-10N between 19W-23W. A tropical wave is along 31W S of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. An impressive plume of Saharan dust is preventing any convection north of 12N east of 33W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-05N between 30W-34W. A tropical wave is along 44W S of 14N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-09N between 42W-48W. A tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 17N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N-13N between 57W-61W. An earlier ASCAT pass shows a well- defined surface trough, with fresh winds on both sides of the wave axis from 10N-14N. Some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands tonight through early Friday. A tropical wave is along 78W from Jamaica southward moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough to produce scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 11N-14N between 74W-78W, as well as across Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N30W, then resumes from 07N33W to 06N42W, then resumes from 06N46W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. The east Pacific monsoon trough extends into the area from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N81W to Costa Rica near 10N84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the low pressure area. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend to the central Gulf near 26N90W to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Strong thunderstorms are located across the nearshore Mexican waters from 22N-25N west of 96W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted along and offshore of the west coast of Florida as well as across the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida, and other inland locations southeast of the front aided by daytime heating. Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds are behind the front per afternoon scatterometer data, with light to gentle winds ahead of the front. The cold front will stall this evening from near its current position at the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche. It will then gradually weaken into a trough on Sat and dissipate late Sun. Fresh northeast winds behind the front will become gentle northeast to east winds late Sat as relatively weak high pressure builds across the area into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Broad mid-to upper-level troughing extends over the western Caribbean, Bahamas and South Florida. These features, along with an old frontal boundary east of the southeast Bahamas and a tropical wave in the area are all acting to increase moisture in the NW Caribbean Sea. As a result, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from the Yucatan Channel to the north coast of Honduras, west of 80W, and over other Caribbean inland locations. An earlier ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate trades across the basin, expect fresh near the tropical waves. Low pressure will prevail into the weekend just north of Panama. A tropical wave extending from Jamaica southward to western Colombia will gradually approach Central America by this weekend. Another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean tonight, then pass to the south of Puerto Rico Fri through Sat, move across the central Caribbean during the weekend and reach the eastern section of the western Caribbean early next week. Moderate trade winds over the eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds during the weekend and continue into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An old frontal boundary extends through 32N52W to 23N60W to near the Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is near the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are seen north of the remnant front west of 60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is fairly tranquil, with mostly moderate to locally fresh wind speeds. Weakening low pressure of 1017 mb near 31N56W will continue to weaken and dissipate through late Sat as it generally tracks westward. The remnant front, as a trough, will slowly move westward through the upcoming weekend. Central Atlantic high pressure will build westward over the eastern forecast waters Sun through Tue night. A cold front may enter the far northwest waters early next week and stall. $$ Lewitsky