000 AXNT20 KNHC 111742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. An impressive plume of Saharan dust is preventing any convection north of 12N east of 31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-09N between 25W-32W. A tropical wave is along 42W from 13N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection exists within about 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 02N-09N. A tropical wave is along 57W S of 15N moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 54W-60W. A recent ASCAT pass shows a well-defined surface trough, with fresh winds on both sides of the wave axis from 10N-14N. Some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands later today through early Friday. A tropical wave is along 75/76W from 18N southward moving W at 15 kt. This wave is interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough to produce scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection south of 12.5N between 76W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N19W and 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-10N between 12W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 46W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through Tallahassee Florida to 26N90W to 24N98W. Strong thunderstorms are located across nearshore Mexican waters west of 96W from 20N-25N. Dry air prevails over the northwest Gulf behind the front along with fresh NE winds. The northern end of a tropical wave, now analyzed as a surface trough over the south-central Bay of Campeche, is producing isolated showers and tstorms there. Over the southeast Gulf, scattered showers and tstorms are seen between the Florida Keys and Cancun Mexico. The cold front will stall by early this evening from the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche. It will then gradually weaken into a trough on Sat and dissipate late Sun. Fresh northeast winds behind the front will become gentle northeast to east winds late Sat as relatively weak high pressure builds across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 75/76W. See above. An upper-level low is centered between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Broad mid- to upper-level troughing extends over the western Caribbean, Bahamas and South Florida. These features, along with a stationary front east of the southeast Bahamas and a tropical wave in the area are all acting to increase moisture in the NW Caribbean Sea. As a result, scattered showers and tstorms are seen from the Yucatan Channel to the north coast of Honduras, west of 80W, and over Cuba west of 79W. Over the E Caribbean, shower activity is isolated. A recent ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate trades across the basin, expect fresh near the tropical waves that are along 57W and 76W. Low pressure will prevail into the weekend just north of Panama. The tropical wave along 76W will pass south of Jamaica this afternoon and tonight, then gradually approach Central America by this weekend. Another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean tonight, then pass to the south of Puerto Rico and move across the central Caribbean during the weekend. Moderate trades over the eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds during the weekend and continue into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N49W to 24N58W to 22N66W to 25N73W. Scattered moderate convection is near the front. Fresh NE to E winds are seen north of the front, north of 22N between 63W-74W. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 45W from 17N-32N is quiet, with mostly moderate wind speeds. Low pressure east-northeast of Bermuda near 34N54W of 1012 mb is weakening and becoming less organized early this morning. The stationary front described above that extends from this low will generally dissipate by tonight, and the remnant front will weaken into a trough while it slowly moves westward into the weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature through weekend. $$ Hagen