000 AXNT20 KNHC 111021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 40W from 13N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists within about 120 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 57W S of 12N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is clustered around 11N56W. A tropical wave is along 73W from 16N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is interacting with an upper level trough over the central Caribbean to produce numerous moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms throughout a broad area of the southeast and south-central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N18W and 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W, to 07N32W and 07N38W, and along 06N from 40W to 47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located within 90 nm mainly north of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, curving southwestward to the coast of Mexico near 23W98W. Strong thunderstorms are located across nearshore Mexican waters near the frontal boundary. Otherwise, aside from scattered moderate showers offshore south Florida, dry conditions prevail. The cold front currently from SE LA to Tampico, Mexico will stall by tonight from the FL Big Bend into the Bay of Campeche. It will then gradually devolve into a trough by the weekend. Some fresh NE winds are possible behind the front over the western Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low pressure 1010 mb centered near 11N79W is inducing scattered thunderstorms throughout the southwest Caribbean. The earlier described tropical wave in the central Caribbean is also producing convection. Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Low pressure will prevail into the weekend just N of Panama. A tropical wave S of Hispaniola early this morning will pass S of Jamaica tonight, then gradually approach Central America by this weekend. Another stronger tropical wave will enter the basin late today, pass S of Puerto Rico Fri, then enter the central Caribbean over the weekend. Moderate trades will start to increase this weekend ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N49W, to 28N50W, 22N60W 22N70W. The stationary front continues northwestward, across the Bahamas, to 29N79W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are banded along this entire boundary this morning. Low pressure E of Bermuda near 34N54W of 1012 mb is weakening and becoming less organized early this morning. A cold front extends from this low to 20N65W to 29N79W. The low will generally dissipate by tonight and the remnant front will diminish into a trough while slowly drifting W into the weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature through weekend. $$ KONARIK