000 AXNT20 KNHC 110601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 13N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ precipitation. A tropical wave is along 13N55W 09N54W 03N53W, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 10N to 13N. A tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 17N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: high clouds that are in the southern part of the Caribbean Sea are moving northeastward, with the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow that covers the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave along the coast of Venezuela, and within 175 nm to the west of the tropical wave off the coast of Colombia. A tropical wave is along 89W/90W from 17N southward moving westward 10 knots. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough that extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, southeastward into Central America. The 89W/90W tropical wave is just to the east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong between 90W and 98W, mostly in Mexico, and in the westernmost sections of Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong is in El Salvador, and in parts of southwestern Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N18W and 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W, to 07N32W and 07N38W, and along 06N from 40W to 47W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm of the coast of Africa from 20W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, curving southwestward to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. The GFE model for 700 mb shows the base of a trough that reaches the Gulf coast border areas of Mississippi and Alabama. Precipitation: isolated moderate is near 22N96W, about 120 nm to the south of the cold front. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough that extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, southeastward into Central America. The 89W/90W tropical wave is just to the east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong between 90W and 98W, mostly in Mexico, and in the westernmost sections of Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong is in El Salvador, and in parts of southwestern Honduras. An Atlantic Ocean stationary front continues northwestward, from 22N70W, across the Bahamas, to 29N79W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Bahamas from Cuba to 26N between the stationary front and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure ridge extends from N Florida, WSW, to the central Gulf of Mexico. The weak high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds, the highest in the western parts of the Gulf, during most of the week. A cold front has exited the Texas coast this afternoon. The cold front will reach a line from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf on Thursday night. The front will stall, and then dissipate gradually, from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of Campeche, from late Friday through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a cyclonic circulation center in the area that is between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is centered near the Gonave Island of Haiti. Isolated moderate is between the archipelago Jardines de la Reina and the Caribbean Sea side of SE Cuba. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the south of the line that runs from 19N62W 17N70W to the NE coast of Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond central Costa Rica. Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the basin through Saturday, as weak high pressure prevails across the western Atlantic Ocean. A pulse of fresh to locally strong winds is expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A weak tropical wave will pass to the south of Hispaniola today, and then to the south of Jamaica on Thursday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will return to the eastern and central sections of the basin, from Saturday night through Monday, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N49W, to 28N50W, 22N60W 22N70W. The stationary front continues northwestward, across the Bahamas, to 29N79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the SSE of the front from 23N northward, and within 150 nm to the NNW of the front from 23N northward. Similar precipitation is within 120 nm to the north of the front and within 60 nm to the south of the front, elsewhere, from 70W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Bahamas from Cuba to 26N between the stationary front and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1012 mb low pressure center that is to the E of Bermuda near 33N53W will remain nearly stationary and weaken through Wednesday. The low pressure center will begin to drift W through the end of the week. The stationary front gradually will dissipate into the weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front, and it will be the dominant weather feature into the weekend. $$ mt