000 AXNT20 KNHC 102322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N southward moving W at 10 kt. Only scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted with this wave. A tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 13N southward moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-12N between 54W-56W, with additional deep convection inland over French Guiana and Suriname. Some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands on Thursday and Thursday night as the wave continues westward. A tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 17N southward moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 15N between 64W-77W, with additional deep convection inland over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia, as well as across the A-B-C Islands. A tropical wave is along 88W from the Gulf of Honduras near 17N southward, extending across western Honduras to eastern El Salvador, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras, however deep convection is noted across adjacent land areas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N37W, then resumes from 03N39W to the equator at 50W near the coast of Brazil. Other than the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-10N between 12W-21W, from 03N-06N between 27W-33W, and from 02N-04N between 40W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana to near the Texas/Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the front over water, with deep convection noted inland over southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Florida Peninsula. A weak ridge extending from N Florida WSW to the central Gulf and will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds, highest in the western Gulf, most of the week. The cold front will reach a line from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf Thu night, then stall and gradually dissipate from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of Campeche late Fri through Sat. Weak ridging will then prevail for the end of the weekend into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves waves are in the Caribbean as noted above, while the eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean to include Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia, and W Venezuela. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the Windward Islands. Similar weather is found over Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica aided by daytime heating. Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the basin through Sat as weak high pressure prevails across the W Atlc. A pulse of fresh to locally strong winds is expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A weak tropical wave will pass S of Hispaniola tonight, then S of Jamaica Thu night. Fresh to strong tradewinds will return to E and central portions of the basin Sat night through Mon as high pres builds across the W Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low is over the central Atlantic near near 34N54W. A stationary front curves away from the low pressure center to 32N50W to 28N50W to 22N60W to 22N65W to across the Bahamas to 29N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60-120 nm of the front. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 15N and E of 50W. The low will remain nearly stationary and weaken through Thu then begin to drift W through the end of the week. The stationary front will gradually dissipate into the weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature into the weekend. Broad troughing may develop in the vicinity of the Bahamas early next week. $$ Lewitsky