000 AXNT20 KNHC 090513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM Tue Jun 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W south of 13N moving W around 15 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of Saharan dust exists. No significant convection is active near the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W south of 12N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 06N-12N between 44W-50W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along the Lesser Antilles along 62W, south of 18N to northeast Venezuela, and is moving W at 10 kt. The previous soundings from Barbados showed a wind shift indicative of the wave passing through the region. Scattered showers are noted across these islands. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends south of Jamaica along 79W, south of 18N to central Panama, and is moving W at 10 kt. This weak wave is accompanied by significant dry air and has no convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Gambia and Senegal near 11N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 05N29W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N32W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the monsoon trough off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 09N-17N between 08W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... As the center of Cristobal continues moving north away from the Gulf, mid-level ridging is building across the Gulf. This is suppressing convective activity across the basin. Light to moderate SSE winds are noted with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft, with 7 ft near the central Gulf coast. Weak high pressure building in from the east will lead to moderate to fresh southerly winds, highest in the western Gulf, most of the week. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous strong convection is moving across the border between Colombia and Panama, some of which is reaching the adjacent waters. Otherwise, the rest of the Caribbean has no significant convective activity. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely ongoing across the far northwest Caribbean, between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure to the west. Fresh to strong trade winds are likely in a small area off the coast of northeast Colombia. Elsewhere moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist. A weakening high pressure ridge extends westward along 23N across the W Atlc and will maintain moderate mainly moderate tradewinds across the basin into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will pass S of Puerto Rico Tue night, reach 70W on Wed night, then enter the western Caribbean by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N59W to 28N65W. The front stalls from 28N65W to 31N75W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 26N to 32N between 54W and 68W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in this same area. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 28N59W to 23N63W. Elsewhere west of 50W, gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are observed. For the forecast, a weak cold front between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight will move southeast to areas east of the Bahamas and N of the Greater Antilles by midweek, where it will stall. Low pressure will form along the front E of Bermuda Tue, then meander north and weaken into late week. Fresh W to SW winds along and ahead of the front will prevail tonight. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature into late week. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high over the Azores near 40N30W. A trough is analyzed from 30N31W to 25N27W. $$ AReinhart