000 AXNT20 KNHC 082256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2256 UTC Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Cristobal is well inland near near 34.0N 92.0W at 08/2100 UTC or 100 nm north of Monroe Louisiana moving N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Buoy and CMAN observation platforms indicate fresh to strong southerly winds are still active in the Mississippi Sound and at the entrance to Mobile Bay. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted elsewhere over the Louisiana and Alabama coastal waters with gusts to near gale force and seas to seven feet. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity associated with Cristobal is noted over the Gulf any longer, although scattered thunderstorms are noted inland from the Sabine Pass through central Mississippi and Alabama. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W south of 15N moving W around 15-20 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of Saharan dust exists. No significant convection is active near the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W south of 12N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 42W-45W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near the Leeward and Windward Islands to northeast Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. The previous soundings from Barbados showed a wind shift indicative of the wave passing through the region. This wave and interaction with an upper level trough in the eastern Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate convection mostly over the Windward Islands. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends between Jamaica and eastern Panama, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This weak wave is accompanied by significant dry air and has no convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Gambia and Senegal near 13N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the intertropical convergence zone extend from 10N20W to 03N25W, from 03N31W to 05N45W, and from 05N48W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Cristobal. Outside of the immediate area of impact from Cristobal, the only significant thunderstorm activity is inland over Florida. Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail across the majority of the Gulf, with seas generally from 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside across the N and NE Gulf through tonight as the remnants of Cristobal continue to lift northward and inland. Weak high pressure will continue to build west across the Gulf early this week and persist through the latter part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely ongoing across the far northwest Caribbean, between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure to the west. Fresh to strong trade winds are likely in a small area off the coast of northeast Colombia. Elsewhere moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist. Upper divergence between an upper anticyclone over the northwest Caribbean and a broad upper trough in the northeast Caribbean are supporting scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of eastern Cuba, Jamaica and southern Hispaniola, but little of this appears to be impacting adjacent waters at this time. No significant thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, the weak ridging north of the area will maintain moderate mainly moderate tradewinds across the basin into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will pass south of Puerto Rico Tue through Tue night, reach 70W on Wed, then enter the western Caribbean by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N60W to 27N65W to 31N75W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 28N to 32N between 59W and 61W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in this same area. Elsewhere west of 50W, gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are observed. For the forecast, the front will cross waters east of the Bahamas Tue, then gradually dissipate by mid-week. Low pressure along the front will form est of Bermuda Tue through Wed. Expect fresh to strong W to SW winds along and ahead of the front through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature into late week. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 mb high over the Azores near 40N30W. $$ Christensen