333 AXNT20 KNHC 081759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Cristobal is centered inland near 32.5N 91.8W at 08/1500 UTC or 13 nm E of Momroe Louisiana and is moving NW at 9 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The most significant convection associated with Cristobal is all well inland north of the area near the center, but scattered moderate convection is still along the coasts of Louisiana and E Texas. Strong southerly winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are still occurring over much of the north central and northeast Gulf. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move through northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W south of 14N moving W around 15-20 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of Saharan dust exists. Scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 22W-29W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W south of 12N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 43W-47W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W through the Lesser Antilles and into northeast Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. This wave and interaction with an upper level trough in the eastern Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate convection mostly over the Windward Islands. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W, from E Cuba to northern Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. This weak wave is accompanied by significant dry air and has no convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 04N26W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N29W and continues to 04N44W. The ITCZ resumes W of another tropical wave near 05N47W and extends to the coast of N Brazil near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 15W-20W, and from 01N-05N between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Cristobal. Outside of the immediate area of impact from Cristobal, the only significant thunderstorm activity is inland over Florida. Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail across the majority of the Gulf, with seas generally from 4 to 7 ft. Cristobal will continue to move farther inland and away from the area today, with winds and seas across the N central Gulf gradually improving today and then quickly later tonight through Tue morning. Weak high pressure will build west across the Gulf early this week and persist through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... With little in the way of the usual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean basin, weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean is leading to gentle to moderate winds, with areas of fresh winds off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft overall, with slightly higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. Aside from convection associated with the eastern tropical wave, dry conditions prevail expect for along the coast of Panama, and elsewhere over E Cuba, where scattered showers are ongoing. A weak high pressure ridge extends westward along 25N-26N across the W Atlantic and will maintain moderate trade winds across the basin into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning will pass S of Puerto Rico Tue, reach the central Caribbean Wed, then enter the western Caribbean by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 28N64W to 31N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the front. Scattered showers are also over the N Bahamas. Broad ridging dominates the E Atlantic, anchored by a 1028 mb high over the Azores near 40N30W. A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along 25N-26N will collapse as a weak cold front sinks S across the waters S of Bermuda today. The front will cross waters E of the Bahamas Tue, then gradually dissipate by mid-week. Low pressure may form E and NE of the Bermuda by Tue and Wed. Expect fresh to strong W to SW winds along and ahead of the front today. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the main weather feature into late week. $$ Formosa