000 AXNT20 KNHC 081004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Cristobal is centered inland near 31.0N 91.2W at 08/0900 UTC or 40 nm N of Baton Rouge Louisiana and is moving NNW at 9 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The most significant convection associated with Cristobal is all well inland north of the area and center, but scattered showers are along the immediate coastline of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle as well as Gulf waters within 120 nm of the coast of Louisiana. Strong southerly winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are still occurring over much of the north central and northeast Gulf. Cristobal will continue moving NNW today, but increase in forward speed. A turn toward the N is expected tonight, then a NNE turn is forecast Tue, with even faster forward speed Tue into Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will cross through southwest Mississippi and northeast Louisiana today, Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W south of 13N and is moving W around 15-20 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of Saharan dust exists. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near this wave and the monsoon trough, from 01N to 06N between 24W and 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W south of 12N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms exist within about 120 nm west of this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W through the Lesser Antilles and into northeast Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. This wave and interaction with an upper level trough in the eastern Caribbean is inducing scattered thunderstorms ahead of it over the far southeast Caribbean and adjacent portions of Venezuela. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from the Windward Passage to northern Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. This weak wave is accompanied by significant dry air and no convection is occurring in its vicinity. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate showers are within 100 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Depression Cristobal. Outside of the immediate area of impact from Cristobal in the north central and northeast Gulf, the only significant thunderstorm activity is just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail across the majority of the Gulf, with seas generally from 4 to 7 ft. Tropical Depression Cristobal will move farther inland to 32.7N 91.7W this afternoon, then continue northward away from the area through Arkansas by Tue morning. Winds and seas will continue to subside through tonight. Weak high pressure will build west across the Gulf early this week and persist through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... With little in the way of the usually subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean basin, weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean is leading to gentle to moderate winds, with areas of fresh winds off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft overall, with slightly higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. Aside from convection associated with the aforementioned tropical waves, dry conditions prevail expect for along the coast of Panama, where scattered showers are ongoing. Relatively weak high pressure north the area will maintain moderate mainly moderate winds into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds are possible in the Gulf of Honduras. One tropical wave S of Haiti this morning will move W into Central America Tue morning. Another tropical wave reaching the Windward Islands this morning will pass S of Puerto Rico Tue, reach the central Caribbean Wed, then enter the western Caribbean by the end of the week. Scattered showers will likely accompany this wave when it is over the eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging dominates most of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure center west of The Azores. Because of this, light to gentle breezes with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over much of the area west of 60W. A cold front has moved S of Bermuda this morning and is producing scattered showers along 30N between 60W and 70W. Also scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring north of the Bahamas in a very moist airmass. The weakening cold front will cross waters E of the Bahamas Tue, then gradually dissipate by mid-week. Low pressure may form E and NE of the area and Bermuda by Tue and Wed. Along and ahead of the front today, some fresh to strong W to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are likely, mainly N of 27N and E of 68W. High pressure will build in behind the front and be the main weather feature into late week. $$ KONARIK