000 AXNT20 KNHC 080516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 AM Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 30.3N 90.2W at 08/0300 UTC or 20 nm NNW of New Orleans Louisiana and is moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Most of the showers and thunderstorms in the immediate area of Cristobal are Inland across the middle Mississippi Valley, but some showers are moving across the central and eastern Gulf Coast, mostly along the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline. Strong southerly wind and seas as high as 17 ft encompass much of the north central and northeast Gulf. Cristobal will continue moving NNW and increase in forward speed through Monday. A turn toward the north is forecast on Monday night, followed by a northeastward motion late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across southeastern Louisiana through early Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W south of 13N and is moving W around 15-20 kt to the south of the Cape Verde Islands. A plume of dust is emerging off the coast of Mauritania into the northeast flow ahead of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate showers are noted along the monsoon trough east of the wave from 02N-05N between 24W-26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W south of 12N, moving W at 10 kt. Some scattered showers are seen within 90 nm. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W south of 15N into northern Guyana and eastern Venezuela, and is moving W around 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is also starting to interact with a sharp upper trough to its northwest, extending over the Leeward Islands. This interaction, along with abundant moisture, is helping support scattered showers moving across the in portions of the Lesser Antilles. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted across Guyana and eastern Venezuela as well. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from SW Hispaniola near 19N southward to northeast Colombia, and is moving W around 10-15 kt. This tropical wave is moving into an area of dry subsident northerly flow in the mid to upper levels, and no significant shower or thunderstorm is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 07N21W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to 06N43W. Scattered moderate showers are within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 28W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Cristobal. Outside of the immediate are of impact from Cristobal in the north central and northeast Gulf, the only significant thunderstorm activity is north of the Yucatan. Mainly moderate SSW winds are noted in all but the far northwest Gulf, where winds are light and variable over offshore waters. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft in the remainder of the Gulf in a mix of swell, except 3 to 6 ft over the far southwest Gulf. Cristobal will move farther inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.0N 91.1W by Mon morning, then move northward away from the area into Arkansas Mon evening. Winds and seas will begin to subside late tonight through Mon night over the north-central gulf waters. Weak Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area Mon night through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico has disrupted the normal subtropical ridge north the Caribbean basin. This pattern is supporting only gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean, with an area of fresh trades off the coast of northeast Colombia. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft overall, with slightly higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. A few showers are noted moving through the Leeward Islands. But otherwise generally dry mid and upper levels are inhibiting significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Relatively weak high pressure north the area will maintain moderate mainly moderate winds into the weekend. One tropical wave S of Hispaniola tonight will move W into Central America by Tue. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles late tonight, south of Puerto Rico early Tue, then the central Caribbean Wed night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this wave in the eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging dominates most of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure center near 37N40W. Because of this, light to gentle breezes with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over much of the area west of 60W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Florida, north of the Bahamas. This activity is ahead of a cold front currently off the Carolinas moving south. A trough is analyzed from 31N60W to 27N68W with thunderstorms north of this trough from 29N-31N between 64W-69W. The prolonged period of showers, thunderstorms, and unsettled weather off the SE U.S. coast and N of the Bahamas will end by Mon. A weak cold front will enter waters S of Bermuda early Mon, then cross areas NE and E of the Bahamas into Tue. Ahead of the front, strong W to SW winds are likely N of 26N and E of 68W Mon. High pressure will build southward across the western part of the area Mon night through Fri night. Weak low pressure is expected to form early a few hundred miles east or northeast of Bermuda along the previously mentioned frontal boundary by mid- week and meander over the western Atlantic. $$ AReinhart