000 AXNT20 KNHC 072359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2359 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 29.1N 89.9W at 07/2100 UTC or 60 nm south of New Orleans Louisiana moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Most of the showers and thunderstorms in the immediate area of Cristobal are onshore, but a few showers and thunderstorms are active just off the mouth of the Mississippi River. Strong southerly wind and seas as high as 22 ft encompass much of the north central and northeast Gulf, north of 25N between Apalachicola Florida and southeast Louisiana. Cristobal is expected to continue moving northward and inland across Louisiana overnight into early Mon, then continue northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving westward around 15 kt to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. A plume of dust is emerging off the coast of Mauritania into the northeast flow ahead of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate showers are noted along the monsoon trough east of the wave near 09N20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W south of 15N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave shows up reasonably well in low level precipitable water imagery and with satellite derived winds. No significant showers or thunderstorms are associated with this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along roughly 60W south of 17N, or from northern Guyana to Barbados, and is estimated to be moving west around 15 kt. The tropical wave is observed on lower level precipitable water imagery and satellite derived winds. The tropical wave is also starting to interact with a sharp upper trough to its northwest, extending over the Leeward Islands. This interaction along with abundant moisture, is helping support scattered showers moving across the islands from Saint Lucia to Guadeloupe. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted across Guyana and eastern Venezuela as well. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed between the Guajira peninsula in northeast Colombia and Cabo Beata in Hispaniola, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. This tropical wave is moving into an area of dry subsident northerly flow in the mid to upper levels, and no significant shower or thunderstorm is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 04N25W. A segment of the intertropical convergence zone continues from from 04N25W to 05N40W. Another segment of the ITCZ reaches from 06N43W to northeast Brazil near 02N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Cristobal. Outside of the immediate are of impact from Cristobal in the north central and northeast Gulf, the only significant thunderstorm activity is about 120 nm west of Fort Myers Florida in the southeast Gulf. Mainly moderate SW winds are noted in all but the far northwest Gulf, where winds are light and variable over offshore waters. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft in the remainder of the Gulf in a mix of swell, except 4 to 6 ft over the far southwest Gulf. For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to subside late tonight through Mon night over the north-central Gulf waters. Weak Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area Mon night through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico has disrupted the normal subtropical ridge north the Caribbean basin. This pattern is supporting only gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean, with perhaps 15 to 20 kt still off the coast of northeast Colombia. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft overall, with slightly higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. A few showers are noted moving through the Leeward Islands. But otherwise generally dry mid and upper levels are inhibiting significant shower or thunderstorm activity. For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Tue, then mainly moderate winds through Fri night. A tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Mon, move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through late Wed and the central Caribbean Thu through late Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this wave in the far eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1020 mb high pressure is centered northeast of the northern Bahamas near 21N74W. This broad ridge is maintaining light to gentle breezes with 2 to 4 ft seas over much of the area west of 60W. A few showers and thunderstorms north of the area are slowly moving southward toward 30N. This activity is ahead of a cold front currently off the Carolinas moving south. For the forecast, this cold front will push south of Bermuda tonight, then move eastward to northeast and east of the Bahamas through Tue. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong west to southwest winds are possible, mainly north of 27N and east of 70W through Mon. High pressure will build southward across the western part of the area Mon night through Fri night. Weak low pressure is expected to form early a few hundred miles east or northeast of Bermuda along this frontal boundary and meander over the western Atlantic. Farther east, a larger high pressure area dominates the area north of 20N east of 60W, maintaining moderate east winds north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades farther south. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. $$ Christensen