000 AXNT20 KNHC 070452 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 26.2N 90.2W at 07/0300 UTC, or 180 nm SSW of the mouth of The Mississippi River, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A band of strong thunderstorms is displaced well east of the storm center, and it extends just off the coast of Tampa, Florida across the western tip of Cuba and the northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, the intrusion of dry air is limiting inner core convective activity. Seas 12 ft or greater are located within 300 nm E semicircle, 150 nm SW and 180 nm NW quadrants with seas to 25 ft over the central Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is expected to continue moving north for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north- northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Note that the threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving away from the region. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America and southern Mexico this week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W south of 16N, moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W south of 19N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W south of 20N, moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 12N17W to 09N19W to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 04N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 03N41W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal will move to 27.6N 90.2W Sun morning, inland into Louisiana to 29.5N 90.7W Sun evening, then cross Louisiana to 31.8N 91.8W Mon morning and weaken into a tropical depression and move farther away from the area by Mon evening. Winds and seas will subside Mon and Mon night, then weak high pressure builds in from the east into mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A line of moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from 09N-13N between 79W-82W. This is near the 1011 mb Colombian low which is displaced in the SW Caribbean near 10N80W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen moving offshore into the Caribbean along the eastern and western coast of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh SSE winds in the NW Caribbean. Fresh easterly winds are north of Hispaniola. Seas range 6 to 8 ft across most of the basin. Fresh to strong SE to SE winds and seas to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel associated with departing Tropical Storm Cristobal will gradually diminish into the morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse intermittently in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will also pulse nightly off the coasts of Colombia and western Venezuela through Mon night. Otherwise, widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue in far NW Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface high pressure extends across much of the central and western Atlantic Ocean this evening, with a weak surface trough analyzed along 54W/58W. There is no notable convection with this trough. Earlier scatterometer data indicated light to moderate trades prevail across much of the Atlantic forecast waters, with perhaps some locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ. Seas are less than 8 ft across the discussion area. Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean and Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over Florida adjacent waters and to the north of the Bahamas through Sun night. A cold front will enter waters south of Bermuda Mon, then swing east through the area through Tue. Along the front, showers and thunderstorms along with some fresh W winds and higher seas can be expected. $$ AReinhart