053 AXNT20 KNHC 062250 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 25.2N 90.2W at 06/2100 UTC, or 240 nm SSW of the mouth of The Mississippi River, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A band of strong thunderstorms is displaced well east of the storm center, and it extends from near Tampa, Florida across the western tip of Cuba to the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, the intrusion of dry air is limiting inner core convective activity. Seas 12 ft or greater are located within 315 nm E semicircle, 120 nm SW and 210 nm NW quadrants with seas to 26 ft over the central Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Note that the threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving away from the region. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America and southern Mexico this week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W south of 16N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W south of 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. No significant oceanic convection is noted with this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W south of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 04N20W to 06N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the ITCZ west of 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sun. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sun through Mon morning. Tropical-storm-force winds and very large, rough seas will produce dangerous marine conditions across the offshore waters through Sun night. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Mon as Cristobal moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... An outer convective band associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal extends across the western tip of Cuba into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Isolated thunderstorms are located near Puerto Rico and west of the Windward Islands. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are noted in earlier scatterometer data over much of the western Caribbean. Recent altimeter data indicates seas are 8-12 ft in this region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the northern coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas to 12 ft in the NW Caribbean associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal will gradually diminish through Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Over the south-central Caribbean, fresh to locally strong winds will continue through Mon night. A pair of tropical waves will move across eastern Caribbean through early next week, bringing a few additional showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue in far NW Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface high pressure extends across much of the central and western Atlantic Ocean this evening, with a couple of weak surface troughs analyzed along 56W and 65W. Neither feature is associated with notable convection. Earlier scatterometer data indicated light to moderate trades prevail across much of the Atlantic forecast waters, with perhaps some locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ. Seas are less than 8 ft across the discussion area. Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean and Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over Florida adjacent waters and to the north of the Bahamas through early Monday. Early next week, a weak cold front will approach the northern waters before stalling and dissipating by the middle of the week. Otherwise, high pressure will support fresh trade winds, highest to the north of Hispaniola this weekend. $$ B Reinhart