000 AXNT20 KNHC 061703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1003 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 23.9N 90.2W at 06/1200 UTC. Cristobal is morning N, or 360 degrees, at 12 knots. Cristobal is about 365 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. A broad band of strong thunderstorms is located within 360 nm E of the center, as well as extending N to S along 87W from the north central Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. Across all of the NE Gulf and north central Gulf to the E of 88W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists. Scattered moderate convection is also ongoing across the NE Gulf and FL peninsula. Cristobal should continue moving northward at a similar pace as it remains between a western Atlantic ridge and western Gulf trough. This will bring Cristobal over the central Gulf today and approach the northern Gulf coast Sunday while slowly strengthening. Once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday, weakening will begin. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring over parts of Mexico and Central America in association with Cristobal. The storm is likely to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches in Quintana Roo and Yucatan, causing storm totals to approach 25 inches. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches, are forecast across portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley through early next week. Flash flooding as well as flooding on streams and rivers may result. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... A Central American Gyre remains in southern Mexico and northern Central America. The broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon trough in Central America, and associated deep convective precipitation usually is found to the south of the trough. Expect additional heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America through tonight. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in the southeastern Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, and in parts of Guatemala and Belize. It is possible that the rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 16N southward, moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists on either side of the tropical wave to about 180 nm. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 18N southward, moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists about 200 nm in the vicinity of this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 17N southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convection is apparent with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N40W. The ITCZ continues from 05N40W to 00N49W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 12W and 26W. Scattered showers exists elsewhere along the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the central Gulf through late Sunday, then move ashore in Louisiana. Thereafter, it will weaken and move away from the area. Once Cristobal moves inland, wind and seas will gradually subside. Moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the north-central Gulf waters through late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the heavy rainfall event that is occurring in Central America. The tail end of Tropical Storm Cristobal extends into the Yucatan Channel in the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 18N86W to 23N85W. A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W, into the SW Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua from SE to NW. Scattered moderate convection exists within 100 nm of the Panama and Nicaragua coast. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, high pressure is keeping mainly dry conditions in place, with some scattered tradewind showers mainly w of 70W. The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean through Sunday. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds and seas of 10 to 15 ft in the NW Caribbean will gradually diminish into tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through tonight. Otherwise, a pair of tropical waves will cross mainly the southern Caribbean through early next week, bringing a few additional showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends from 29N53W to 23N57W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough. A second trough is also noted to the west near 29N63W to 24N66W with scattered showers extending about 100 nm on either side of the trough. Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean and Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms near Florida and to the north of the Bahamas through the weekend. Early next week, a weak cold front will approach the northern waters before stalling and dissipating by the middle of the week. Otherwise, high pressure will support fresh trade winds, highest to the north of Hispaniola this weekend. $$ MMT