000 AXNT20 KNHC 061024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 23.8N 90.2W at 06/0900 UTC. Cristobal is morning N, or 350 degrees, at 12 knots. Cristobal is about 350 nm/600 km south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. A broad band of strong thunderstorms is located within 150 nm N of the center, as well as extending N to S along 87W from the north central Gulf, along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and south along the coast of Belize. Across all of the NE Gulf and north central Gulf to the E of 91W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists. Scattered moderate convection is also ongoing across the NE Gulf and FL peninsula. Cristobal should continue moving northward at a similar pace it is remains between a western Atlantic ridge and western Gulf trough. This will bring Cristobal over the central Gulf today and approach the northern Gulf coast Sunday while slowly strengthening. Once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday, weakening will begin. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring over parts of Mexico and Central America in association with Cristobal. The storm is likely to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches in Quintana Roo and Yucatan, causing storm totals to approach 25 inches. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches are forecast across portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley through early next week. Flash flooding as well as flooding on streams and rivers may result. There is a danger of life threatening storm surge from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm surge is also possible from Morgan City, LA, to the mouth of the Mississippi River and from Indian Pass to Arepika, FL, where Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well to the east of Cristobals center. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... A Central American Gyre remains in southern Mexico and northern Central America. The broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompasses the discussion waters from 10N northward from 100W eastward. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon trough in Central America, and associated deep convective precipitation usually is found to the south of the trough. Expect additional heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America through tonight. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in the southeastern Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, and in parts of Guatemala and Belize. It is possible that the rainfall may cause widespread life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 16N southward, moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists ahead of this wave to about 42W, mainly S of 09N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 18N southward, moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists from 08N to 12N between 50W and 55W in association with this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 18N southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N17W, and to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, to 04N32W. The ITCZ also is along 02N/03N between 36W and 46W. Precipitation: Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 10W and 15W and from 00N to 05N between 20W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection exists elsewhere from 0N to 10N between 15W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the central Gulf through late Sunday, then move ashore in Louisiana. Thereafter, it will weaken and move away from the area. Once Cristobal moves inland, wind and seas will gradually subside. Moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the north- central Gulf waters through late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the heavy rainfall event that is occurring in Central America. A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W, into the SW Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua from SE to NW, into southern Honduras. Precipitation: Scattered moderate convection exists within 120 nm of the Panama and Costa Rica coast. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, high pressure is keeping mainly dry conditions in place, with some scattered tradewind showers mainly E of 70W. The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean through the weekend. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds and seas of 10 to 15 ft in the NW Caribbean will gradually diminish into tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean through tonight. Otherwise, a pair of tropical waves will cross mainly the southern Caribbean through early next week, bringing a few additional showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 33N20W, through 30N19W, to 24N23W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 33W eastward. Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean and Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms near Florida and to the north of the Bahamas through the weekend. Early next week, a weak cold front will approach northern waters before stalling. Otherwise, high pressure will support fresh trade winds, highest to the north of Hispaniola this weekend. $$ KONARIK