000 AXNT20 KNHC 060602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 23.3N 90.1W at 06/0600 UTC. Cristobal is moving N, or 360 degrees, 12 knots. Cristobal is about 350 nm/650 km to the south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 120 nm to 435 nm away from the center in the NE quadrant, and in parts of the Yucatan Channel and in the easternmost parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico from 94W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are in the Atlantic Ocean, from 70W westward. The storm is moving northward at a slightly faster pace, about 12 knots. A south to north steering flow, between a western Atlantic Ocean deep layer ridge and a western Gulf of Mexico middle level to upper level trough, should cause Cristobal to continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days. This motion should take the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. A slight turn to the northwest is expected around the landfall time, as a middle level ridge moves across the central and eastern U.S.A. Damaging and deadly flooding already has been occurring in parts of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts for another day or so. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in far southern Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and also along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life- threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend, and in other parts of southern and southeastern Louisiana, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well to the east of Cristobals center. Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast, from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... A Central American Gyre remains in southern Mexico and northern Central America. The broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompasses the discussion waters from 10N northward from 100W eastward. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon trough in Central America, and associated deep convective precipitation usually is found to the south of the trough. Cristobal, now a tropical storm just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, remains embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Expect additional heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America through tomorrow. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in the southeastern Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, and in parts of Guatemala and Belize. It is possible that the rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N southward, moving west 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 09N southward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 19N southward, moving west 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 10N southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 18N southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N17W, and to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, to 04N32W. The ITCZ also is along 02N/03N between 36W and 46W. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is from 05N to 08N between 10W and 15W, and from 01N to 04N between 21W and 24W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 01N to 10N between 14W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 22.7N 90.1W 998 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Cristobal will move to 24.1N 90.3W Sat morning, 25.9N 90.3W Sat evening, 27.7N 90.2W Sun morning. Cristobal will make land and be near 29.5N 90.8W Sun evening, then reach 31.7N 91.9W Mon morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.4N 92.8W Mon evening. Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow will be present across most of the north central Gulf of Mexico through late Tuesday, once Cristobal moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the heavy rainfall event that is occurring in Central America. A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W, into the SW Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua from SE to NW, into southern Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 14N southward from 79W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level western Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 70W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the south central Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 70W westward. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern Mexico, for several days. Expect widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms in the far NW Caribbean Sea, through the weekend. Gale-force SE to S winds, and building seas, are in the NW Caribbean Sea, and will continue into Saturday morning. Strong winds will prevail through Saturday night. Fresh to strong trade winds also will continue in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. A tropical wave will support scattered rainshowers this weekend in the SE part of the basin, and in the Windward Islands. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 33N20W, through 30N19W, to 24N23W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 33W eastward. Abundant moisture, pouring NE from the Central American Gyre, and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristobal, continue to support scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms in parts of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. These rainshowers will persist into early next week, as Cristobal moves through the north central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will support fresh trade winds, mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through the weekend. $$ MT