000 AXNT20 KNHC 052334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 21.4N 89.7W at 05/2100 UTC. Cristobal is moving N at 12 kt. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection prevails 20N-25N from 83W-90W. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Damaging and deadly flooding has been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through tomorrow. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters north of 10N and east of 100W. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central America, and associated deep convection is usually found south of the trough axis. Cristobal, now a tropical storm centered on the Yucatan peninsula coast, remains embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre, and will continue to produce additional heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America through tomorrow. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over the southeastern Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo as well as portion of Guatemala and Belize. This rainfall can cause widespread life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis near 34W and from 16N equatorward is moving west at 15 kt. A trough in the surface winds was noted in the scatterometer winds in association with this tropical wave. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave. An Atlantic tropical wave with axis near 48W and from 19N equatorward is moving west at 15 kt. No significant surface component of this wave could be observed, as it is primarily monitored by 700 mb flow. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave with axis near 61W and from 18N equatorward is moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant surface component of this wave could be observed, as it is primarily monitored by 700 mb flow. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-15N between 55W-61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa from 12N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N31W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 04N36W to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04N- 06N between 35W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Weak surface ridging extends from the Atlantic across Florida to 29N85W. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the very large circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal covers the remainder of the Gulf. Away from Cristobal, no other deep convection is occurring over the Gulf. Cristobal will move to 22.9N 90.0W Sat morning, 24.9N 90.1W Sat afternoon, 26.7N 90.1W Sun morning, 28.5N 90.4W Sun afternoon, inland to 30.4N 91.1W Mon morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.8N 92.2W Mon afternoon. Cristobal will move inland near 39.5N 91.0W Tue afternoon. Once Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the north-central Gulf waters through late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall event occurring over Central America. A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia along and north of 10N then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough south of 13N and west of 78W. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean into the weekend. Gale force SE to S winds and building seas are in the NW Caribbean and will continue through Sat morning. However, strong winds will prevail through the evening hours. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean through Sat night. Otherwise, a tropical wave will support scattered showers this weekend in the SE basin and Windward Islands. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Ridging extends from the 1026 mb Bermuda High at 34N54W to NE Florida at 30N81W. Easterly trades south of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate breeze due to a weak N-S pressure gradient. Farther northeast, a 1010 mb occluded low is centered near 32N20W, with scattered moderate convection north of 30N between 17W-22W. A weak surface trough extends from 28N77W near the NW Bahamas to S Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 25N-28N between 77W-82W. Abundant moisture pouring NE from the Central American Gyre and Tropical Storm Cristobal continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Florida and the Bahamas. These showers will persist to early next week as Cristobal moves towards the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure will support fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, through the weekend. $$ Landsea