930 AXNT20 KNHC 051013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is near 18.8N 90.1W at 05/0900 UTC. This position is inland, about 80 nm/130 km SSE of Campeche, Mexico. Cristobal is moving NNE, 20 degrees, at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong convection is noted within 180 nm of center in the NE semicircle, from northern Belize across most of the Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is also located within 540 nm SE semicircle, including much of Guatemala, southern Belize, Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and the northwest Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection also extends within 600 nm NE quadrant, including western Cuba and portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Damaging and deadly flooding will continue to occur over portions of Mexico and Central America. Storm total rainfall amounts over southern Guatemala, coastal Chiapas, and El Salvador may reach 35 inches. Widespread life threatening flooding and mudslides may persist into the weekend. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. Cristobal is expected to emerge into the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico late today, then move north through the central and northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The risk of tropical storm force winds and dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle will exist well in advance of when Cristobal's center approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast late Sunday. It is likely that storm surge and tropical storm watches will be issued for a part of the U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico later today. Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico, from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre (CAG) circulation. Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico all of this week. Abundant tropical moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and northern parts of Central America. Additional rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches are forecast over southern Guatemala and coastal Chiapas, with 4 to 8 inches expected in Campeche, Quintana Roo, Yucatan, and El Salvador. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is along 29W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Little convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is along 39N, from 16N south, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located within 300 nm ahead of this wave, S of 10N. A tropical wave is along 59W, from 16N south, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm of either side of the wave axis S of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N17W and 05N24W. The ITCZ is along 03N40W to 05N46W to 08N50W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are located along the ITCZ between 42W and 47W. Scattered moderate showers are located between the equator and the monsoon trough from 10W to 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Depression Cristobal. Elsewhere in the Gulf, scattered moderate showers exist over the eastern and northeastern Gulf, mainly within 210 nm offshore coast of Florida. A surface ridge is along 28N80W in Florida, across the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico, into the upper Texas Gulf coast. Tropical Depression Cristobal is inland near 18.8N 90.1W 1000 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Cristobal will remain inland and reach 20.1N 90.1W this afternoon, move into the Gulf and strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.0N 90.3W Sat morning, then reach 23.8N 90.4W Sat afternoon, 25.7N 90.3W Sun morning, 27.6N 90.4W Sun afternoon, and inland to 29.6N 91.2W Mon morning. Cristobal will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Louisiana early Tue. Once Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the Gulf waters through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall situation for Central America. One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, through central Nicaragua, into central Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located within about 180 nm offshore the coast of Central America Otherwise, high pressure is dominating the Caribbean with scattered moderate showers across the basin moving quickly west in fresh to strong trades. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean into the weekend. Strong to near gale force SE winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat evening. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is located from 31N50W to 25N60W to 27N65W. The few showers that were associated with this front have diminished. A weak surface trough from 32N20W to 25N35W is producing little in the way of precipitation this morning. The stationary front will evolve into a surface trough today, and dissipate tonight.Abundant moisture pouring NE from the Central American Gyre and Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Florida and the NW Bahamas. These showers will persist to early next week as Cristobal moves towards the north- central Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure north of the front will support fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, through the weekend. $$ KONARIK