000 AXNT20 KNHC 050615 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is near 17.8N 90.4W at 05/0300 UTC. This position also is about 125 nm/235 km to the south of Campeche, inland in Mexico. Cristobal is moving eastward, or 90 degrees, 3 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 130 nm of the center in the eastern quadrant, from Belize into much of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 340 nm to 475 nm to 615 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, in parts of NW Cuba and to the south of Cuba, in the Yucatan Channel, and in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Damaging and deadly flooding already has been occurring in parts of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in the far southern sections of Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge into the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and move northward into the central and northern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds during this weekend, from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. There is also a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of, and extend well to the east of, Cristobal's center. It is likely that storm surge and tropical storm watches may be issued for a part of the U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico, from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico during the last several days. Abundant tropical moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and northern parts of Central America. More heavy rain is expected in the Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and in El Salvador with 5 to 10 inches of rain. 2-4 inches of more rain are expected in Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca through Saturday. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 10N southward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 11N southward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 250 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 09N to 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N17W and 05N24W. The ITCZ is along 03N40W 05N46W 08N50W 09N54W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm on the NE side of the ITCZ between 43W and 45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong: is within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 11W and 19W; and from 120 nm to 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 44W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Depression Cristobal. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the east of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend, to 27N92W, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico along 93W. Similar clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. The clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around the periphery of the circulation of T.D. Cristobal. A surface ridge is along 28N80W in Florida, across the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico, into the upper Texas Gulf coast. Tropical Depression Cristobal inland near 17.8N 90.4W 1000 mb at 11 PM EDT moving E at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Cristobal will remain inland near 19.1N 90.1W Fri morning, then move offshore at 20.9N 90.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.5N 90.6W Sat morning, 24.3N 90.5W Sat evening, 26.3N 90.4W Sun morning, and 28.3N 90.9W Sun evening. Cristobal will weaken to a tropical depression, while moving inland into Louisiana late Mon. Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow will be present across most of the Gulf of Mexico waters through Monday night, once Cristobal moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall situation for Central America. One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, through central Nicaragua, into central Honduras. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 280 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, from 18N southward from 79W westward, and in the western half of Panama. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area that is around T.D. CRISTOBAL, that is inland in Mexico, off the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 70W westward in general. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level western Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 70W eastward. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist in the northern part of Central America and in southern Mexico for several days. Expect widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea into the weekend. Strong SE winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras, and east of Yucatan, through Saturday evening. It is possible that the wind speeds may reach near gale-force in the Yucatan Channel, from Friday through Saturday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N47W, to 29N50W, to 26N54W, 25N59W, and to 26N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the north of the stationary front. An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough passes through 32N22W, to 26N30W and 26N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward from 42W eastward. The current stationary front along 25N will dissipate tonight. Abundant moisture inflow from the Central American Gyre and Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to support scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Florida and the Bahamas. These rainshowers will persist into early next week, as Cristobal moves toward the north-central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure to the north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through Saturday. $$ mt