000 AXNT20 KNHC 042219 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2300 UTC Thu Jun 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Storm Cristobal is near 17.5N 90.8W at 04/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 3 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification is expected to begin late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Currently, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula. Similar convection is also seen in a band extending between San Andres Island and the coastal plains of Nicaragua, all the way to the NW to Cancun, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is observed over portions of Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight or Friday. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico during the last several days. Abundant tropical moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and northern Central America. More heavy rain are expected in the Mexican states of Campeche, Quinatan Roo and Yucatan, as well as over El Salvador, with additional 5 to 10 inches of rain. Additional 2-4 inches are expected in Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca through Saturday. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 37W and from 18N southward, is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted where the wave axis meets the ITCZ. A second tropical wave is analyzed along 57W and from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis, mainly S of 12N to the coast of South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N34W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection can be found N of the ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 25W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Depression Cristobal. The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico supports an area of fresh to strong easterly winds across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 23N with seas of 8-10 ft roughly between 87W and 93W. As Cristobal moves back into the Gulf waters by late Fri, winds and seas will continue to increase across the Gulf region. The large circulation of Cristobal is forecast to dominate most of the Gulf region with the strongest winds and highest seas over the eastern semicircle. Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, and a diffuent pattern aloft continues to support shower and thunderstorms over most of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will again be possible over South Florida on Friday along with heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for South Florida through Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall event occurring over Central America. A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia along and north of 10N then across Central America. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough south of 17N and west of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds prevailing across the basin. The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through Sat. Strong SE winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat evening. Winds may reach gale force near the Yucatan Channel Fri through Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic west of 75W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. A western Atlantic stationary front passes through 31N48W to 23N56W to 27N70W with no significant convection. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Abundant moisture inflow from the CAG and Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to support scattered showers across portions of Florida and offshore waters N of the Bahamas. These showers will persist to early next week. High pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat. $$ GR