000 AXNT20 KNHC 041030 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 605 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 17.9N 91.3W at 04/0900 UTC. This position also is about 60 miles/95 km to the southeast of Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. Cristobal is moving southeast at 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 200 E and NE of the center. Scattered moderate to strong is within 180 to 240 nm of the center in the SE and SW quadrants. Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so, while the center moves slowly inland in eastern Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge in the south central Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and some re-intensification is forecast to occur, as Cristobal moves northward to the northern Gulf coast. Damaging and deadly flooding already has occurred in parts of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in far southern Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere in Mexico along the Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico this morning, in the western part of Campeche, in the eastern part of Tabasco, and in the northern part of Chiapas. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and move northward into the central and northern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning during the weekend along parts of the U.S.A. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Please monitor the progress of Cristobal, and make sure to have a hurricane plan in place. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Friday night. Abundant tropical moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and northern Central America. More heavy rain are expected in El Salvador, with additional 10 to 15 inches of rain, mainly from This afternoon through early Saturday. It is possible that Belize and Honduras may receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. It is possible that the rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15 knots. Precipitation: from 11N southward...isolated moderate is within 180 nm east of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/56W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N15W and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 03N32W. The ITCZ also is along 05N35W to 04N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 02N to 08N from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate rain showers are from 04N to 11N between 40W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, except within 300 nm of the coast of Texas. The clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal inland near 17.9N 91.3W 998 mb at 5 AM EDT moving SE at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Cristobal will remain over land and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 91.0W this afternoon, re-intensify to a tropical storm near 20.2N 90.4W Fri afternoon, and move northward Sat and Sun in the central Gulf. Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center. Once Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the Gulf waters through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall situation for Central America. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow associated with T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is inland in southern Mexico, covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward from 70W westward in general. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of an upper level western Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 70W eastward. A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia in the part that is to the north of 10N, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to north central Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area from 15N southward and 78W westward. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through Saturday. Strong SE winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan through Saturday evening. Winds may reach gale force near the Yucatan Channel Friday through Saturday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N48W, to 25N60W, to 25N76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm north of the front between 58W and 70W. Isolated moderate is within 200 nm to the south of the front from 70W eastward. An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front passes through 32N11W, to 24N26W, 23N33W, to 27N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the north of the stationary front. The current stationary front, that is along 25N to the east of the Bahamas, will dissipate slowly today. High pressure to the north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through Saturday. $$ mt/dbm