000 AXNT20 KNHC 040608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 18.0N 91.5W at 04/0600 UTC. This position also is about 45 miles/70 km to the south-southeast of Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. Cristobal is moving southeast at 3 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 200 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so, while the center moves slowly inland in eastern Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge in the south central Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and some re-intensification is forecast to occur, while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast. Damaging and deadly flooding already has occurred in parts of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in far southern Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere in Mexico along the Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday morning, especially in the western part of Campeche, in the eastern part of Tabasco, and in the northern part of Chiapas. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and move northward into the central and northern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning during the weekend along parts of the U.S.A. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Please monitor the progress of Cristobal, and make sure to have a hurricane plan in place. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Friday night. Abundant tropical moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and northern Central America, at the same time as Cristobal has been interacting with the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough. Rounds of heavy rain are expected in El Salvador, with additional 10 to 15 inches of rain, mainly from Thursday afternoon through early Saturday. It is possible that Belize and Honduras may receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. It is possible that the rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/33W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: from 11N southward...isolated moderate to locally strong is within 160 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N15W and 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 03N31W. The ITCZ also is along 05N34W 04N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 08N from 30W eastward. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 11N between 40W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, except within 300 nm of the coast of Texas. Similar clouds and precipitation cover the Atlantic Ocean from 76W westward. The clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal inland near 18.3N 91.8W 995mb at 11 PM EDT nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Cristobal will remain inland near 18.0N 91.4W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.4N 90.9W Thu evening, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 21.3N 90.5W Fri evening, and move northward Sat and Sun in the central Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center. Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow will be present across most of the Gulf waters through Monday night, once Cristobal moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall situation for Central America. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is inland in Mexico, off the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward from 70W westward in general. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level western Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 70W eastward. One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia in the part that is to the north of 10N, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to north central Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area that is from 15N southward from 78W westward. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist in the northern parts of Central America and in southern Mexico, for several days. Expect widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Strong southeast winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan, through Saturday evening. It is possible that the Wind speeds may reach gale force near the Yucatan Channel, from Friday through Saturday, along with building seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean Sea, through early Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N48W, to 25N60W, 25N70W, and to 25N76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm to the N of the stationary front between 58W and 70W. Isolated moderate is within 200 nm to the south of the front from 70W eastward. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N12W, to 31N12W. The front is stationary from 31N12W to 24N26W, 24N33W, to 29N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the north of the stationary front. The current stationary front, that is along 25N to the east of the Bahamas, will dissipate slowly, through Thursday. High pressure to the north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through Saturday. $$ mt