000 AXNT20 KNHC 030536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 19.0N 92.1W at 03/0600 UTC. This position also is about 120 nm WSW of Campeche Mexico. Cristobal is moving southward 1 knot. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 220 nm of the center in the SE quadrant: from 16N to 20N between 89W and 93W, including in the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and in the northern part of Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere from 20N southward between the storm and 95W. Movement: the storm is expected to move slowly southward or southeastward, as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre that is centered in eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore to the coast of Mexico, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, later tonight or on Wednesday. Cristobal is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early Thursday, after landfall. Increasing southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward in the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in southern Mexico and northern Central America, potentially leading to life- threatening flash floods and mudslides during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation, that has been bringing heavy rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and southern Mexico, during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Saturday, in parts of southern Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern sections of Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it is likely that these areas also may receive additional heavy rainfall. It is possible that the rainfall total for the entire event, with both tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end up reaching 35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the rains may lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is on either side of the tropical wave, with either the monsoon trough or with the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W and 03N22W. The ITCZ is along 06N from 29W to 46W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 220 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 42W and 45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the area from the monsoon trough to 10N from the 26W/27W tropical wave eastward, and within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, except within 215 nm of the coast of Texas. The clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal near 19.0N 92.1W 996 mb at 1 AM EDT moving S at 1 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move to near 18.7N 92.1W Wed, inland to near 18.4N 91.8W Wed night, then continue inland and weaken to a tropical depression on Thu. Cristobal is forecast to re- intensify to a tropical storm near 19.6N 91.1W on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall situation for Central America. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from 70W westward in general, specifically: in the waters between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba; and from 15N northward from 82W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Mona Passage. One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond northern Nicaragua, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line that runs from the NE corner of Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia and Venezuela from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days. Expect widespread heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds, and seas, are expected to continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan, through Saturday. Fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W, to 27N60W, 25N70W, to the NW Bahamas between Andros Island, Grand Bahama Island, and the Abaco Islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 275 nm to the SSE of the cold front from 66W eastward. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to 29N20W, 28N30W, 30N37W, to 34N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The western Atlantic Ocean cold front will drift southward, and stall overnight. The front will dissipate, slowly, through Wednesday. High pressure to the north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola through Saturday. $$ mt