000 AXNT20 KNHC 021052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three is centered near 19.6N 92.1W at 02/0900 UTC or 90 nm W of Campeche Mexico moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm today, and it will meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through Thursday. TD Three will will act as a focus for additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico. See the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... TD Three is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation that has been bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past few days. Additional heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Honduras. These rains could lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain over portions of southern Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 23W from 15N southward moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis from 04N-06N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W S of 15N moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near 06N24W to 06N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is from 05N- 07N between 25W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on TD Three. Numerous moderate to scattered strong shower and thunderstorms activity is noted from Belize through Campeche to within 120 nm in the northeast semicircle of TD 3. Scattered moderate convection is also active from 24N to 27N between 83W- 87W. Outside of winds associated to TD Three, gentle to moderate winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas. Broad cyclonic flow associated with the Central American Gyre will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over much of Central America and the the Gulf of Honduras in association with the Central America Gyre. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from eastern Panama to northeast Nicaragua. Isolated trade wind showers are seen over the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, and moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas. The Central American Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico during the entire week leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through Sat as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north of the basin today, which will lead to the development of fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N58W to central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm east of the front from 25N to 28N. Fresh to strong NE winds behind front have diminished to 15 to 20 kt, with 5 to 8 ft seas. The front will drift south and stall along 25N today, before dissipating tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Sat, mainly north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a cold front is approaching the Canary Islands, reaching southwest to 25N30W. Weak ridging is noted north of 20N between this front and the front over the western Atlantic. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate trade winds farther south, and light to gentle winds north of 20N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. $$ Christensen