000 AXNT20 KNHC 011046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact Belize and the southern Yucatan peninsula. The remnant low of Amanda is now centered along border of Mexico and northern Guatemala, but the focused area of circulation within the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for these areas. A continued period of active and wet weather, with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. The remnant low of Amanda along the Guatemala/Mexico border is rotating around the larger circulation of the Central American Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium possibility that the remnant circulation of Amanda may develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Sierra Leone from 06N-10N east of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days. A dissipating cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A few showers are noted near 24N84W and 22N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed near 19N92W. These thunderstorms are the remnants of a larger area of convection active across the south central Gulf earlier. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted in all but the southwest Gulf, where a recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong easterly winds. This was largely due to the earlier thunderstorm activity. Low pressure over the southern Yucatan peninsula is moving slowly toward the southwest Gulf, possibly redeveloping into a tropical cyclone. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas are expected in the Bay of Campeche through mid week. Elsewhere, the weak cold front over the northeast Gulf will gradually dissipate today as it moves toward the far southeast Gulf. Looking ahead, the low pressure over the southwest Gulf will be absorbed into a broader low emerging out of southern Mexico by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras associated with the large gyre across northern Central America and southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds and seas will persist in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through Fri as a result of the persistent gyre in the region. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N72W to Jacksonville Florida. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds follow the front. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front north of 30N. Numerous moderate to scattered strong thunderstorms are noted within 120 to 240 nm east of a trough reaching from 29N66W to 22N72W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N W of 55W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the open waters N of 20N W of 55W. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas. The cold front along 30N will move south and extend from just east of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late today, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong through tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Fri. $$ Christensen