000 AXNT20 KNHC 311807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 98W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in the 6-10 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters, particularly N of 10N between 87W and 94W. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active and wet weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. Tropical Storm Amanda developed in the eastern north Pacific and moved inland over Guatemala today. The remnants may rotate around the larger circulation of the Central American Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium possibility that the remnant circulation of Amanda may develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau 11N15W 04N28W. The ITCZ continues from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N- 011N between the coast of Liberia west to 27W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Brazil from 02N- 04S east of 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days. A stationary front extends along the northern Gulf coast from Panama City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A Surface trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to off Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over the Bay of Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, on the periphery of the Central American Gyre over the region to the south. The surface trough and thunderstorm activity are enhanced by a well developed upper low that is centered over northern Mexico. Scatterometer pass indicated NE to E winds around 20 to 25 kt over much of the southwest Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle to light winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the weak stationary front will dissipate tonight. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest Gulf early in the week as a broad area of low pressure, known as a Central American Gyre, persists over southeast Mexico and northern Central America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days. The tropical wave in the western Caribbean has been absorbed into the circulation of the Central American Gyre. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and western Caribbean and eastern Caribbean waters and lighter winds west of 79W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through the end of the week because of the Central American Gyre. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean Thu and Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough reaches from near 28N69W through the southern Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered tstorm are active near the northern end of the surface trough from 23N-28N between 66W-71W. A mid to upper level trough is moving off the Georgia and Carolina coasts into the western Atlantic. A cold front north of the area is enhancing showers and tstorms from 28N to 31N between 70W and 78W. Moderate SW winds are active in this area as well, ahead of the cold front approaching from the west. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near 32N56W. Thunderstorm activity near this feature has completely dissipated over the past six hours. A surface trough extends south to 25N55W with scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 49W-54W. Generally light winds persist over open waters west of 54W. The cold front will move south of 31N late today and tonight and extend from just east of Bermuda SW to S Florida by Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to moderate to fresh on Mon and Tue. High pressure building north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N on Wed and Thu. MTorres