000 AXNT20 KNHC 311025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is moving onshore into eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with the northern portion of the tropical wave reaching the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave will merge into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre later this morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau 12N16W 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to the coast of Brazil near 01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N-08N between 21W- 25W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Brazil from 00N-03S east of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days. A cold front extends along the northern Gulf coast from Panama City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A surface trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to off Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan peninsula and the Bay of Campeche, on the periphery of the Central American Gyre developing over the region to the south. The surface trough and thunderstorm activity are enhanced by a well developed upper low is centered over the lower Rio Grande Valley. A recent scatterometer pass indicated NE to E winds around 20 to 25 kt over much of the southwest Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle to light winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the weak cold front moving into the northeast Gulf will stall over the southeastern Gulf by early Tue and dissipate through mid week. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest Gulf early in the week as the Central American Gyre persists over southeast Mexico and northern Central America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days. A tropical wave is moving across the far western Caribbean, and will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central American Gyre later today. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through mid week as the Central American Gyre deepens. Farther east, the Bermuda High rebuilds to north of the basin maintaining fresh tradewinds off Colombia through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W. A surface trough reaches from near 27N70W through the southern Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered thunderstorms are active near the northern end of the surface trough. A mid to upper level trough is moving off the Georgia and Carolina coasts into the western Atlantic, supporting scattered thunderstorms from 30N to 31N between 77W and 79W. Moderate SW winds are active in this area as well, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near 32N59W. Thunderstorm activity near this feature has completely dissipated over the past six hours. Generally light winds and 3 to 5 ft seas persist over open waters west of 55W. The cold front will move inot the area through late today, will reach from Bermuda to South Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh trade winds by mid week south of 22N off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the approaches to the Windward Passage. Farther east, high pressure covers the Atlantic waters north of 20N. This is supporting moderate to fresh trades farther south over the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Christensen